Tag Archive

Time To Be Contrarian About U.S. Stock Holdings

By John S. Tobey

I recently wrote about U.S. stocks recovering their valuations after this year’s sell-off. However, that doesn’t mean the market’s rise is over. There is another source of gains that is potentially very large. However, to view it, we need to take a contrarian stance. This article is posted on SeekingAlpha.com »

Stock Market’s Health: Recovered, But Not Yet Normal

By John S. Tobey

The stock market has fully recovered its lost ground from this year’s sell-off. Analysts and investors have now incorporated lower economic growth forecasts, information from company earnings reports/outlooks, and mega-trend fears. Evaluating the earnings adjustments and the stock market’s valuation show a stock market that has recovered from its oversold position. Moreover, future growth... »

Low Consumer Confidence: A Nice Contrarian Indicator

By John S. Tobey

Throughout the summer, we’ve heard about declining consumer confidence (AKA, sentiment). The conclusion typically drawn is that low consumer confidence now likely means low consumer spending ahead. Until recently, warnings have been sounded about weak winter holiday sales. Now, however, consumer confidence readings are creeping back, and retail sales are actually looking good. How... »

Wall Street Signals A Bull Market In U.S. Stocks

By John S. Tobey

It’s been slow coming. After a rare quadruple bottom, the U.S. stock market has risen this month (October, no less!) amidst continuing angst and warnings. The whisper economic reports (“psst… they’re actually looking better”) remained out of the spotlight as Europe, politics and other negative “stuff” was tossed about as proof that we were... »

Alcoa’s Outlook Implies Large Market Gains Ahead; Will JP Morgan Follow?

By John S. Tobey

This earnings season just kicked off with a major surprise from Alcoa. It wasn’t what Alcoa (AA) did – it’s what it said. Although last quarter’s earnings came in under analysts’ already reduced estimates, management kept its sales growth forecasts virtually unchanged. “Kept” implies a passive, do-nothing attitude. Actually, it’s an active statement founded... »

Last Week Set The Stage For A Bull Market

By John S. Tobey

Smokey the Bear just flipped his sign to “Safe” and headed toward his cave to hibernate. Just when the match touched the kindling, a drenching rainstorm put out the fire. We can now confidently walk in the forest (AKA, the stock market) once again. After last Monday’s high volume sell-off drove the market to... »

Beware And Prepare For A Mini Market Flash Crash

By John S. Tobey

Smokey the Bear’s fire indicator is pointing to “Danger!” To me, the stock market’s conditions are like a tinder-dry forest. While we cannot know if a spark will ignite a fire, we can beware and prepare for the possibility. Article posted on SeekingAlpha.com »

Stock Market Battle Near Resolution: Time To Be A Schizophrenic Opportunist

By John S. Tobey

October’s first two weeks could provide stock investors with a good opportunity to make money — by being simultaneously bullish and bearish. However, this schizophrenic attitude doesn’t necessarily mean hedging is the best approach. I believe there is another strategy that could produce better gains in the end. Article posted on SeekingAlpha.com »

Stock Market’s 3rd Quarter Drop Means 80% Chance Of Rise

By John S. Tobey

Stock market quarters can have unique personalities. Usually, a quarter has a controlled range of volatility with different industries and stocks producing a diversified movement for the market as a whole. However, occasionally things come unglued and a strong trend affecting most stocks takes hold (either positive or negative). Of the past 200 quarters... »

Market Signals A Bottom: Time To Own Stocks

By John S. Tobey

The headlines would have us believe the stock market plummeted – again. The explanation is that everything is going wrong, capped by those frightening words: “Global Recession.” However, last week’s stock market message isn’t what it did, it’s what it didn’t do. This article is posted on SeekingAlpha.com »

Dig In To The Dow For 20% To 30% Potential Return

By John S. Tobey

During last year’s market drop and mega-fears (concerns about the global economy, European/Greek debt, Asian growth and our financial system), analysts correctly forecast company earnings growth would stay on pace. They were right, and the good company results pulled the stock market out of its slump and produced significantly good returns. So how about... »

Double Bottom — UPDATE

By John S. Tobey

The exhibits below, from “Double Bottom? This Powerful, Positive Indicator Could Be Forming,” have been updated through Friday’s close. »

Double Bottom? This Powerful, Positive Indicator Could Be Forming

By John S. Tobey

The formation of a double bottom (a second drop to, but not below, a previous low) is a well-liked, positive indicator. This price support in the face of previous weakness shows that buyers are stepping in and offsetting sellers. This sign, in turn, can produce confidence that the previous decline is ending, thereby bringing... »

The 3 C’s Needed for Investment Success – Now More Than Ever

By John S. Tobey

News reports, pundit predictions, radio talk shows and reader comments have reached loud, negative levels. Unbridled pessimism has sprung up regarding just about everything. Like last year at this time, events and facts have been blown out of proportion and only negative indicators are taken as the “truth” with which to forecast a trend.... »

Why Dunkin’ Donuts’ IPO Success Is Good News for KKR

By John S. Tobey

We are accustomed to initial public offerings (IPOs) of newer companies originating from venture capital funds. Dunkin’ Donuts (DNKN) represents the other breed of IPO: An established company originating from a private equity fund. Dunkin’ Donuts’ stock was offered at the top price of its range ($19 per share), began trading on Wednesday (July... »

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