Low Consumer Confidence: A Nice Contrarian Indicator

Monday, October 31, 2011

Throughout the summer, we’ve heard about declining consumer confidence (AKA, sentiment). The conclusion typically drawn is that low consumer confidence now likely means low consumer spending ahead. Until recently, warnings have been sounded about weak winter holiday sales.

Now, however, consumer confidence readings are creeping back, and retail sales are actually looking good. How should we interpret these moves? And how should we view those low, summer levels?

The answer is twofold.

This article is posted on SeekingAlpha.com

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