Housing & Homebuilding

Homebuilders’ Bonus: Weak Competition From ‘Newer’ Homes

Thursday, May 22, 2014
Homebuilders’ Bonus: Weak Competition From ‘Newer’ Homes

New home sales get reported tomorrow (Friday, 5/23), but the monthly, seasonally adjusted number is not the key determinant of the homebuilding outlook. Yes, we will see how things are going now, but more importantly are the underlying drivers that put new homes in a favorable competitive position. Especially important is the shrunken supply... »

Homebuilders – Stocks Priced For Disappointment, So Time To Own

Monday, April 21, 2014
Homebuilders – Stocks Priced For Disappointment, So Time To Own

With investors typically looking six months ahead, we should be seeing a good spark of interest in homebuilders stocks. But, instead, there is a collective holding of breaths. There are three key drivers for this hesitation. More importantly, the wait-and-see attitude is setting up the possibility of a “who knew?” run-up in homebuilder stocks.... »

Starting Gun Just Sounded For 2014 Housing Market – Time To Buy D.R. Horton

Tuesday, December 17, 2013
Starting Gun Just Sounded For 2014 Housing Market – Time To Buy D.R. Horton

This is it – the news we’ve been waiting for: New highs in the economy and homebuilder confidence. And they came at the same time. Moreover, we’re getting this good news in the final stages of “loss harvesting” in which investors mistakenly sell low for tax “benefits,” ignoring fundamentals. Sale candidates are homebuilders, at... »

Forget Affordability – Housing’s Trends Signal A Bright Future

Monday, October 28, 2013
Forget Affordability – Housing’s Trends Signal A Bright Future

It seems that whenever something happens in the housing market, a flock of articles pop up explaining why the signs are ominous and housing is destined to flounder. To me, the oddest one has to do with existing home sales this year. Prices have risen, and the inventory of homes for sale has fallen.... »

Suddenly Housing Activity Looks Bullish Again

Thursday, October 24, 2013
Suddenly Housing Activity Looks Bullish Again

An influx of data and observations is reshaping housing’s activity from its hopeful look to something more exciting. The positive developments are so widespread and significant that it seems time to shift from being positive to being bullish on housing. Below are the items I find most compelling: This article is published on Forbes.com... »

When Will Housing Recover? How About in 2011

Sunday, February 13, 2011
When Will Housing Recover? How About in 2011

Ask someone when housing will return to normal and you will likely hear forecasts ranging from a few years to never. Why? The usual litany of conditions – especially weak employment. And now mortgage rates are over 5%! So, what about this proposition: That 2011’s housing market could be better than expected – even... »

Foreclosure ‘Mess’ Negatives Are Exaggerated and Positives Are Ignored

Friday, October 15, 2010
Foreclosure ‘Mess’ Negatives Are Exaggerated and Positives Are Ignored

Typical of this year’s one-sided analyses, the foreclosure slowdown is being dressed up as a terrible blow to both the real estate market and the banks. Not only are the adverse effects overstated, but also there is little mention of the beneficial effects. Looking at what’s happening without the hype shows a much less... »

Home Sales Analysis Misses the Mark, Providing Buying Opportunities

Friday, August 27, 2010
Home Sales Analysis Misses the Mark, Providing Buying Opportunities

Lower home sales articles were everywhere this week and were universally loud and dire. On Wednesday, The Wall Street Journal linked almost every market problem to home sales, starting with its front page article proclaiming, “Plunge in Home Sales Stokes Economy Fears” (By Sudeep Reddy and Nick Timiraos, August 25, page A-1). Here’s what... »

Housing’s Health? Good Enough To Consider Buying Homebuilders

Friday, August 20, 2010
Housing’s Health? Good Enough To Consider Buying Homebuilders

Early this year, I speculated that housing could show improvement this year – “A Robust Housing Market – 2010’s Biggest Surprise?” (January 7). While some might argue with the adjective, “robust,” housing has moved ahead due to the factors listed in the article as well as the government’s incentive plan. »

Home Sales Down but Prices Up – What Gives?

Friday, August 6, 2010
Home Sales Down but Prices Up – What Gives?

The latest housing reports show sales have slipped (particularly for new homes) since the April 30 expiration of the US government homebuyer incentive. Yet, the latest S&P/Case-Shiller data has house prices continuing to rise. Well, that’s not supposed to be how supply/demand works. Demand has clearly tapered off, and we know there continues to... »

The New Housing Subsidy: Affordability

Tuesday, July 6, 2010
The New Housing Subsidy: Affordability

You would think today’s mortgage rates of near 4.5% would bring happiness. Instead, some see the low rates as a sign of housing’s weakness, a measure of buyers’ difficulty in getting mortgage loans and/or an indicator of coming deflation. The rate decline does offer good news as we move into the summer home selling... »

The Wall Street Journal Gets House Price Trend Wrong – Interprets Case-Shiller Data Incorrectly

Thursday, April 29, 2010
The Wall Street Journal Gets House Price Trend Wrong – Interprets Case-Shiller Data Incorrectly

It happens. Reporters, because they cannot be financial experts in all fields, take a press release and misinterpret the data. However, the problem this time is serious because: House prices are an important, sensitive indicator to investors The data misuse gives an exact opposite conclusion to what is actually happening There is no excuse... »

Housing Data and Builders’ Optimism Improving – Signs of Good Post-Stimulus Market?

Sunday, April 25, 2010
Housing Data and Builders’ Optimism Improving – Signs of Good Post-Stimulus Market?

Last Friday, I commented about the turn up in homebuilders’ land purchases amid home price stability and improvement (“Homebuilders Buying Land Again – House Price Patterns Support the New Activity”).  The current government stimulus program is scheduled to end on April 30. Will the indicators turn down again, or will we see a good... »

Homebuilders Buying Land Again – House Price Patterns Support the New Activity

Friday, April 23, 2010
Homebuilders Buying Land Again – House Price Patterns Support the New Activity

In The Wall Street Journal, there was a surprise article describing homebuilders beginning to compete for property: “Land Prices Jump as Home Builders Move In” (By Dawn Wotapka, April 21, page A-5). We have been seeing improvements in many areas of the housing markets (I have covered these indicators in Housing and Homebuilding articles). ... »

Housing Indicators Show Stability and Improvement Ahead of 2010 Selling Season

Friday, March 26, 2010
Housing Indicators Show Stability and Improvement Ahead of 2010 Selling Season

Housing is a hot button for many investors. They do not see how the housing market could improve this year, and a number believe prices could fall further. Today’s write-up expands on yesterday’s article (“Housing Problems Are Dissipating and Fragmenting – Think About Buying“) by taking a look at housing’s indicators. »

Search

John Tobey on Seeking Alpha

Seeking Alpha Certified

April 2017
S M T W T F S
« May    
 1
2345678
9101112131415
16171819202122
23242526272829
30