Housing & Homebuilding

Housing Problems Are Dissipating and Fragmenting – Think About Buying

Thursday, March 25, 2010
Housing Problems Are Dissipating and Fragmenting – Think About Buying

I just saw an article saying the stock market’s run-up is ignoring housing’s problems. That supposition is wrong on many counts. »

These Three Economic Gauges Read “OK”

Monday, March 22, 2010
These Three Economic Gauges Read “OK”

Investors, analysts and pundits can look at the same economic measures and come away with opposing views as to the economy’s health and future. The economy’s “trees” can range from vibrant to blighted, allowing differing economic “forest” diagnoses. As a result, we see predictions of economic normalcy and growth side-by-side with reversal and collapse.... »

Out-of-sync, Negative Pundits Are Getting Louder – So, Stay Positive

Thursday, March 18, 2010
Out-of-sync, Negative Pundits Are Getting Louder – So, Stay Positive

It’s called “fighting the tape.” In this market, that means bearish advisers and short-sellers who refuse to admit that they missed the boat. Good news and positive trends are dismissed or ignored, and new negatives are touted as the drivers of the next smashup, just around the corner. Here is one example… »

Want To Buy A Sector Fund? Ignore the Label; Examine the Contents

Thursday, February 25, 2010
Want To Buy A Sector Fund? Ignore the Label; Examine the Contents

After reading yesterday’s write-up (Homebuilder Stock Articles Raise Questions – And Exclamations), you understood why a 9% year-to-date return for homebuilder stocks was more appropriate than 21%. Still, 9% in less than two months is pretty good. So, you checked the performance of your homebuilder fund and… WHOA! What happened? The performance is so... »

Homebuilder Stock Articles Raise Questions – And Exclamations

Wednesday, February 24, 2010
Homebuilder Stock Articles Raise Questions – And Exclamations

On Monday, Bloomberg reported, “Homebuilding Stocks Seen Rising Too Far, Too Fast.”  The reporter included a graph that shows homebuilders far outperforming the stock market year-to-date. Other publications, including The Wall Street Journal, picked up the theme, helping the stocks to sell off more sharply than the market on Tuesday. The problem is that... »

A Robust Housing Market – 2010’s Biggest Surprise?

Thursday, January 7, 2010
A Robust Housing Market – 2010’s Biggest Surprise?

Mention “housing market” and people’s shoulders sag. Thoughts turn to foreclosures and shrunken equity. Nothing good is foreseen, just expectations of more foreclosures, adding to the already over-saturated market. And now the Federal Reserve is stepping away from buying mortgage securities, even as the media reports banks are unwilling to lend. However, in spite... »

Media Frets and Warns – So, We Can Be Optimistic

Thursday, December 24, 2009
Media Frets and Warns – So, We Can Be Optimistic

As is typical when a growth trend evolves out of dark times, the media simply cannot get in sync. Because negative news titillates – and sells – it’s so hard to give it up. Today’s good news reports regularly have concerns and warnings tacked onto them. For stock investors, that means opportunity. Here is... »

Home Sales Measures Coming – More Good News?

Monday, December 21, 2009
Home Sales Measures Coming – More Good News?

Some interesting indicators are being released the last two weeks of December – our period of special opportunity. Housing has the big three: existing home sales, new home sales and S&P Case-Shiller home prices. All have been improving in spite of negative articles about the current housing market and its outlook. Here is where... »

Foreclosures + Strapped Consumers = Double Counting?

Friday, November 6, 2009
Foreclosures + Strapped Consumers = Double Counting?

We know the dismal foreclosure picture: empty houses, bank losses, and displaced households, struggling to make ends meet. But, wait. Back up to those bank losses. They are the result of mortgage balances not being fully paid by the foreclosed house sales. But that only looks at the bank’s balance sheet. What about the... »

Railroads, Warren Buffett and the Future of America

Thursday, November 5, 2009
Railroads, Warren Buffett and the Future of America

The official announcement of Berkshire Hathaway’s takeover of Burlington Northern included this Warren Buffett quote: It’s an all-in wager on the economic future of the United States. I love these bets. His comments are in the tradition of J.P. Morgan and James J. Hill, who created Northern Securities, the first version of Burlington Northern... »

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