Archive for February, 2011

It did it. The stock market has doubled. So, what does that imply for the period we’ve been through. And, more importantly, where are we headed now? (more) This article is on SeekingAlpha.com »

A series of unusual U.S. stock market conditions have created “upside risk” – i.e., the possibility of “panic buying.” The definitions of each are: Upside Risk: “The extent to which the value of a security or other investment may increase beyond forecast levels.” (Financial Times; Online Lexicon) Panic Buying: “A flurry of security purchases... »

A product’s value determines its price. For the stock market, that value has risen appreciably over the past 18 months. Small wonder, then, that stock prices are up likewise. Here’s the picture … (more) This article is on SeekingAlpha.com »

Value stock investing has changed over the past few months. Late last August, value screens could turn up quality companies at attractive prices. Now, those bargains are gone, and the value approach is back to searching for special situations. It’s been a while since the market has been in this position, so let’s review…... »

Ask someone when housing will return to normal and you will likely hear forecasts ranging from a few years to never. Why? The usual litany of conditions – especially weak employment. And now mortgage rates are over 5%! So, what about this proposition: That 2011’s housing market could be better than expected – even... »

A rising market lifts all stocks, right? Well, not exactly. Even in a bull market, some stocks lag. Shareholders experience dismay, even distrust, from being left in the dust. That’s the situation with Merck (MRK). Weak performers today can become strong ones tomorrow, and the turnabout returns are usually quite good. So, let’s look... »

It should be enough to rely on CBOE’s strongly worded advice not to expect too much from VIX – particularly since it is in CBOE’s interest to have investors embrace its use. However, some investors need proof. So below is a series of graphs that show the weakness of using VIX as an indicator... »

We are told that VIX (the Volatility Index for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Stock Index) currently indicates investor complacency and, therefore, a coming stock market drop. Actually, that warning sounded last October. So why does the stock market keep rising? Has VIX (a.k.a. the “fear index”) lost its way? Or are stock market... »

The US economy has gotten standing ovations this week. All five major reports for January have been better than expected – some significantly so (see table below). Just one report is left: Employment. (more) This article is posted on SeekingAlpha.com »

I am seeing more investors incorrectly use political opinions to substantiate their investing actions. Political beliefs are often emotionally charged, thereby skewing reasoning. The result: Poor investment decision-making. »