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Double Bottom — UPDATE

By John S. Tobey

The exhibits below, from “Double Bottom? This Powerful, Positive Indicator Could Be Forming,” have been updated through Friday’s close. »

Double Bottom? This Powerful, Positive Indicator Could Be Forming

By John S. Tobey

The formation of a double bottom (a second drop to, but not below, a previous low) is a well-liked, positive indicator. This price support in the face of previous weakness shows that buyers are stepping in and offsetting sellers. This sign, in turn, can produce confidence that the previous decline is ending, thereby bringing... »

Stock Market Turnaround Could Be Near

By John S. Tobey

Often, a dramatic, weekly move that accentuates a previous trend is followed by an equally dramatic one in the opposite direction. Last week’s decline could be just such a move, setting us up for a possible stock market turnaround. One week’s action does not signify a trend Occasionally, we get dramatic and negative news... »

Stock Market Has Become a 2011 Performance Leader

By John S. Tobey

For over two years, many investors have viewed the U.S. stock market as a poor investment. The reasons cited ranged from too risky to unpopular to low return expectations. Nevertheless, investors haven’t sat on their hands, earning near-zero returns in money market funds. They have actively invested in other investment areas. The surprise might... »

How to Prepare for U.S. Stock Market Upside Risk

By John S. Tobey

Libya? Oil prices? U.S Dollar? Employment? Inflation? Forget about those risks. There is a new U.S. stock market risk warning that has just been revealed on Wall Street. (more) This article is on SeekingAlpha.com »

Rate of Developing Bull Market Trend Could Be Precursor to Buyer’s Panic

By John S. Tobey

A series of unusual U.S. stock market conditions have created “upside risk” – i.e., the possibility of “panic buying.” The definitions of each are: Upside Risk: “The extent to which the value of a security or other investment may increase beyond forecast levels.” (Financial Times; Online Lexicon) Panic Buying: “A flurry of security purchases... »

Value Investing Using the ‘Special Situations’ Approach

By John S. Tobey

Value stock investing has changed over the past few months. Late last August, value screens could turn up quality companies at attractive prices. Now, those bargains are gone, and the value approach is back to searching for special situations. It’s been a while since the market has been in this position, so let’s review…... »

When Will Housing Recover? How About in 2011

By John S. Tobey

Ask someone when housing will return to normal and you will likely hear forecasts ranging from a few years to never. Why? The usual litany of conditions – especially weak employment. And now mortgage rates are over 5%! So, what about this proposition: That 2011’s housing market could be better than expected – even... »

Investors Jump Back Into U.S. Stock Mutual Funds

By John S. Tobey

The Investment Company Institute just reported the second week of significant inflows into U.S. stock mutual funds. The two-week total (through January 19) is $6.7 billion. Is this a sign of the top? Absolutely not. It shows the investors have shaken off 2010’s mega-risk/global-risk mindset that produced 34 straight weeks of U.S. stock mutual... »

Forecast for Bondholders: How the Fed’s Dilemma Will Affect You

By John S. Tobey

Previously, I discussed whether the Fed was paying attention to inflation’s apparent resurgence (“Tame Inflation Just Growled – Is the Fed Listening?”). Today, let’s talk about the box the Fed is in, what its choices are and how the direction chosen would affect bondholders. (more) This article is posted on SeekingAlpha.com »

Tame Inflation Just Growled – Is the Fed Listening?

By John S. Tobey

The Wall Street Journal’s lead article says it all: “Global Price Fears Mount” (By Brian Blackstone and Marcus Walker, January 24, page A-1). Rising inflation concerns have reached the “something must be done” stage. Everywhere except here in the US, that is. Now that anti-inflation actions (i.e., interest rate increases) are being discussed or... »

Outlook 2011: Growth and a Return to Normality

By John S. Tobey

Commentators say 2010 was a year of “unexpected” economic and market gains in the face of worries, concerns and reversals. That’s because those pundits allowed 2009’s uncertainties to carry over into their thinking. Looking for the next big, bad event produced numerous false warnings and unfulfilled dire predictions. 2011’s outlook is for growth and... »

US Stocks vs. Bonds – The Obvious Choice

By John S. Tobey

Occasionally (rarely) there are times when the next investment trend is obvious. Today looks like one of those times. »

Retail Sales Indicate a Happy New (Stock Market) Year in 2011

By John S. Tobey

Do you have lingering doubts about the US economy? Is that worry keeping you out of the stock market? It’s understandable- We’ve been bombarded for months with warnings about impending crises and collapses. But it’s time to exit the past- The proof of recovery is here. Accepting that fact is the key to successful... »

/Quick Point/ – Today’s Score: Bulls 2, Bears 0

By John S. Tobey

Forget Bernanke and the Federal Reserve. The real news today is what drove the stock market up this morning. The Wall Street Journal’s mid-day article says it all… »

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