Tag Archive

Stock Market’s Health: Recovered, But Not Yet Normal

By John S. Tobey

The stock market has fully recovered its lost ground from this year’s sell-off. Analysts and investors have now incorporated lower economic growth forecasts, information from company earnings reports/outlooks, and mega-trend fears. Evaluating the earnings adjustments and the stock market’s valuation show a stock market that has recovered from its oversold position. Moreover, future growth... »

10 Good Looking Stocks in This Nervous Market

By John S. Tobey

The latest spate of worrisome news and warnings is just the thing for producing desirable stock prices. Wednesday’s stock market drop, while perhaps scary, was not a breakdown indicator. Rather, it moved many stocks down to attractive buy levels – i.e., near the bottom of recent ranges. This article is posted on SeekingAlpha.com »

The 2011 US Stock Market Outlook Looks Bright

By John S. Tobey

One year ago, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) was around 10,300. Today, it’s about 11,400, for a gain of over 10% (excluding dividends). Nice. Except, it actually underperformed its fundamentals. Its improved valuation gives us the prospect of a very happy new year indeed. Here’s why… »

US Stock Market’s Trend About To Be Tested

By John S. Tobey

Last Friday, I suggested looking at US stock market valuations because they were back to the attractive levels of July 2009. (“It’s Time to Look at Stock Valuations” – June 25.) That was a fact-based analysis. Today, let’s add in the psychological side, then blend the two together. »

Bears Get Nervous as Their Arrows Dwindle – The New York Times Misses the Mark

By John S. Tobey

The New York Times is notoriously late in recognizing a stock market trend change. On Monday, they published a bearish article that is a valuable read. It shows how empty the bears’ quiver has become. The article, “Stocks Soar, but Many Analysts Ask Why” (The New York Times, by Javier C. Hernandez, March 29,... »

S&P 500 Leaves Sick Bed – Healthy Earnings and Dividends in 2010

By John S. Tobey

The current fourth quarter reports are putting 2009 into the history books. At the same time the focus on 2010 is making the broad-based Standard & Poor’s 500 Stock Index (S&P 500) look ever better. Importantly, the numbers are indicating a real return to normality. The improvement can be seen in the S&P 500... »

The 2009 Earnings Are Coming! – OK, but What About 2010?

By John S. Tobey

Last October, the third quarter 2009 earnings reports were important. They revealed that the economy was improving. And they showed that leading companies had reestablished their operations and finances enough to generate earnings growth at the economy’s lower levels. They also provided evidence that financial companies were righting themselves. This was just the proof... »

The Defect in Price/Earnings Ratios – Part 2

By John S. Tobey

Yesterday we saw the challenge in using price/earnings ratios (P/Es) to analyze individual stocks. Today, we turn to the added difficulties in combining multiple company P/Es into a usable average P/E for portfolios and indexes… »

The Defect in Price/Earnings Ratios – Part 1

By John S. Tobey

The price/earnings ratio (P/E) is a popular stock valuation measure. However, it has a flaw, which I explain below. Tomorrow, in Part 2, we will examine how the flaw affects portfolio and stock market analysis. »

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