Tag Archive

Home Sales Analysis Misses the Mark, Providing Buying Opportunities

By John S. Tobey

Lower home sales articles were everywhere this week and were universally loud and dire. On Wednesday, The Wall Street Journal linked almost every market problem to home sales, starting with its front page article proclaiming, “Plunge in Home Sales Stokes Economy Fears” (By Sudeep Reddy and Nick Timiraos, August 25, page A-1). Here’s what... »

Housing’s Health? Good Enough To Consider Buying Homebuilders

By John S. Tobey

Early this year, I speculated that housing could show improvement this year – “A Robust Housing Market – 2010’s Biggest Surprise?” (January 7). While some might argue with the adjective, “robust,” housing has moved ahead due to the factors listed in the article as well as the government’s incentive plan. »

Home Sales Down but Prices Up – What Gives?

By John S. Tobey

The latest housing reports show sales have slipped (particularly for new homes) since the April 30 expiration of the US government homebuyer incentive. Yet, the latest S&P/Case-Shiller data has house prices continuing to rise. Well, that’s not supposed to be how supply/demand works. Demand has clearly tapered off, and we know there continues to... »

The New Housing Subsidy: Affordability

By John S. Tobey

You would think today’s mortgage rates of near 4.5% would bring happiness. Instead, some see the low rates as a sign of housing’s weakness, a measure of buyers’ difficulty in getting mortgage loans and/or an indicator of coming deflation. The rate decline does offer good news as we move into the summer home selling... »

Housing Data and Builders’ Optimism Improving – Signs of Good Post-Stimulus Market?

By John S. Tobey

Last Friday, I commented about the turn up in homebuilders’ land purchases amid home price stability and improvement (“Homebuilders Buying Land Again – House Price Patterns Support the New Activity”).  The current government stimulus program is scheduled to end on April 30. Will the indicators turn down again, or will we see a good... »

Homebuilders Buying Land Again – House Price Patterns Support the New Activity

By John S. Tobey

In The Wall Street Journal, there was a surprise article describing homebuilders beginning to compete for property: “Land Prices Jump as Home Builders Move In” (By Dawn Wotapka, April 21, page A-5). We have been seeing improvements in many areas of the housing markets (I have covered these indicators in Housing and Homebuilding articles). ... »

Four Stocks That Illustrate Contrarian Investing in This Market

By John S. Tobey

Contrarian investing is a key approach to earning superior returns. Most often considered appropriate for a value approach, “contrarian” aids all successful investors and investment managers, regardless of their particular style. I have written about contrarian investing and its importance in past articles (e.g., see the four-part series beginning with “It’s Time To Be... »

Housing Indicators Show Stability and Improvement Ahead of 2010 Selling Season

By John S. Tobey

Housing is a hot button for many investors. They do not see how the housing market could improve this year, and a number believe prices could fall further. Today’s write-up expands on yesterday’s article (“Housing Problems Are Dissipating and Fragmenting – Think About Buying“) by taking a look at housing’s indicators. »

Housing Problems Are Dissipating and Fragmenting – Think About Buying

By John S. Tobey

I just saw an article saying the stock market’s run-up is ignoring housing’s problems. That supposition is wrong on many counts. »

Want To Buy A Sector Fund? Ignore the Label; Examine the Contents

By John S. Tobey

After reading yesterday’s write-up (Homebuilder Stock Articles Raise Questions – And Exclamations), you understood why a 9% year-to-date return for homebuilder stocks was more appropriate than 21%. Still, 9% in less than two months is pretty good. So, you checked the performance of your homebuilder fund and… WHOA! What happened? The performance is so... »

Homebuilder Stock Articles Raise Questions – And Exclamations

By John S. Tobey

On Monday, Bloomberg reported, “Homebuilding Stocks Seen Rising Too Far, Too Fast.”  The reporter included a graph that shows homebuilders far outperforming the stock market year-to-date. Other publications, including The Wall Street Journal, picked up the theme, helping the stocks to sell off more sharply than the market on Tuesday. The problem is that... »

A Robust Housing Market – 2010’s Biggest Surprise?

By John S. Tobey

Mention “housing market” and people’s shoulders sag. Thoughts turn to foreclosures and shrunken equity. Nothing good is foreseen, just expectations of more foreclosures, adding to the already over-saturated market. And now the Federal Reserve is stepping away from buying mortgage securities, even as the media reports banks are unwilling to lend. However, in spite... »

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