Tag Archive

Easy Money (3) – Fed Ignores Those Harmed by Policy

By John S. Tobey

With all the talk about the Fed’s easy money actions, there remains one subject that is largely ignored: Who’s paying for the Fed’s largess? With low interest rates, lots of money and good intentions (increase employment and bolster the economy), the Fed’s easy money policy seems like a win-win situation. The only “cost” appears... »

Easy Money (2-cont.): Fed Policy Understates Money Growth

By John S. Tobey

During the Fed’s easy money policy, official money supply growth looks moderate. Therefore, there seems to be little indication of high inflation risk. However, the easy money policy has caused money supply dislocations. When adjusted for these, money supply growth increases appreciably, thereby raising inflation concerns. Here’s the situation… This article is posted on... »

Currency Moves Signal Panic Selling – Use It to Our Advantage

By John S. Tobey

Yesterday I discussed how to use currency exchange rates for understanding global economic and financial conditions. Today, let’s look at how the rates can provide a window into emotional investment moves, particularly panic selling, and how we can use the information to our advantage. »

Evaluating Global Economic and Financial Concerns – Choose Viewpoints Carefully

By John S. Tobey

Last year, when rising cocoa prices were hot news, I described the problem with using only US dollar values to make an evaluation of a global product (see “Cocoa Prices and Currency Measurement” – October 23, 2009). Today, with Europe, the Euro and “contagion” in the news, it’s time to revisit the need to... »

The DJIA Closes At 5,813 – In 1989 Dollars, That Is

By John S. Tobey

We see many articles and studies that use long-term results to make a point – especially now because the stock market is selling at levels first seen some years ago. For example, the excitement of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) re-crossing 10,000 and the “lost decade,” so-called because markets are at levels first... »

Bernanke Wins! Now, What?

By John S. Tobey

The Senate confirmed Ben Bernanke’s reappointment, albeit with a record high 30 “nay” votes. So, is he now free to act independently? Or does the far-from-unanimous approval vote, combined with the on-going congressional efforts to trim the Federal Reserve’s powers, limit his actions? And what about that negative vote at the Federal Reserve Open... »

New Dawn Is Breaking – Be Ready

By John S. Tobey

Typically I write about one subject to give you an insight into a timely topic, key information that is being overlooked or an objective evaluation of a subject producing misleading emotions. Today, though, it’s time to rise above the details and look at the big picture because a major shift is in the works.... »

US Dollar’s Decline? Think Interest Rates, Not Inflation

By John S. Tobey

Many articles are linking the US dollar, gold and oil price moves into a forecast of high inflation to come. Starting with the premise that big government deficits lead to high inflation, those three measures are used as proof that the movement is afoot. There are problems with that analysis… »

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