Tag Archive

When Will Housing Recover? How About in 2011

By John S. Tobey

Ask someone when housing will return to normal and you will likely hear forecasts ranging from a few years to never. Why? The usual litany of conditions – especially weak employment. And now mortgage rates are over 5%! So, what about this proposition: That 2011’s housing market could be better than expected – even... »

Foreclosure ‘Mess’ Negatives Are Exaggerated and Positives Are Ignored

By John S. Tobey

Typical of this year’s one-sided analyses, the foreclosure slowdown is being dressed up as a terrible blow to both the real estate market and the banks. Not only are the adverse effects overstated, but also there is little mention of the beneficial effects. Looking at what’s happening without the hype shows a much less... »

Home Sales Analysis Misses the Mark, Providing Buying Opportunities

By John S. Tobey

Lower home sales articles were everywhere this week and were universally loud and dire. On Wednesday, The Wall Street Journal linked almost every market problem to home sales, starting with its front page article proclaiming, “Plunge in Home Sales Stokes Economy Fears” (By Sudeep Reddy and Nick Timiraos, August 25, page A-1). Here’s what... »

Housing’s Health? Good Enough To Consider Buying Homebuilders

By John S. Tobey

Early this year, I speculated that housing could show improvement this year – “A Robust Housing Market – 2010’s Biggest Surprise?” (January 7). While some might argue with the adjective, “robust,” housing has moved ahead due to the factors listed in the article as well as the government’s incentive plan. »

Home Sales Down but Prices Up – What Gives?

By John S. Tobey

The latest housing reports show sales have slipped (particularly for new homes) since the April 30 expiration of the US government homebuyer incentive. Yet, the latest S&P/Case-Shiller data has house prices continuing to rise. Well, that’s not supposed to be how supply/demand works. Demand has clearly tapered off, and we know there continues to... »

The New Housing Subsidy: Affordability

By John S. Tobey

You would think today’s mortgage rates of near 4.5% would bring happiness. Instead, some see the low rates as a sign of housing’s weakness, a measure of buyers’ difficulty in getting mortgage loans and/or an indicator of coming deflation. The rate decline does offer good news as we move into the summer home selling... »

The Wall Street Journal Gets House Price Trend Wrong – Interprets Case-Shiller Data Incorrectly

By John S. Tobey

It happens. Reporters, because they cannot be financial experts in all fields, take a press release and misinterpret the data. However, the problem this time is serious because: House prices are an important, sensitive indicator to investors The data misuse gives an exact opposite conclusion to what is actually happening There is no excuse... »

A Robust Housing Market – 2010’s Biggest Surprise?

By John S. Tobey

Mention “housing market” and people’s shoulders sag. Thoughts turn to foreclosures and shrunken equity. Nothing good is foreseen, just expectations of more foreclosures, adding to the already over-saturated market. And now the Federal Reserve is stepping away from buying mortgage securities, even as the media reports banks are unwilling to lend. However, in spite... »

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