Tag Archive

Wall Street Signals A Bull Market In U.S. Stocks

By John S. Tobey

It’s been slow coming. After a rare quadruple bottom, the U.S. stock market has risen this month (October, no less!) amidst continuing angst and warnings. The whisper economic reports (“psst… they’re actually looking better”) remained out of the spotlight as Europe, politics and other negative “stuff” was tossed about as proof that we were... »

Last Week Set The Stage For A Bull Market

By John S. Tobey

Smokey the Bear just flipped his sign to “Safe” and headed toward his cave to hibernate. Just when the match touched the kindling, a drenching rainstorm put out the fire. We can now confidently walk in the forest (AKA, the stock market) once again. After last Monday’s high volume sell-off drove the market to... »

Dow 20,000: How It Could Happen

By John S. Tobey

Most first quarter 2011 earnings reports are in and the news is good. Over three-quarters exceeded expectations. Moreover, the results showed a desirable combination of growing revenues, profitability and cash flow. Profit margins are being maintained by cost control, improved productivity and operating leverage. This combination of factors helped push analysts’ 2011 earnings expectations... »

The Shift to Bull Market Thinking Has Begun

By John S. Tobey

In January I wrote, “Be Contrarian; Believe a ‘Real’ Bull Market Is Starting.” It looks like it’s begun. There are still reports using “but” to offset good news, and The Economist is still happily pointing out where the rain is falling or could fall. However, the continuing economic and financial improvements are forcing a... »

How to Prepare for U.S. Stock Market Upside Risk

By John S. Tobey

Libya? Oil prices? U.S Dollar? Employment? Inflation? Forget about those risks. There is a new U.S. stock market risk warning that has just been revealed on Wall Street. (more) This article is on SeekingAlpha.com »

Contrarians, Beware: Investors Are Not Stupid!

By John S. Tobey

We’re getting a flood of warnings that it may be time to sell. Why? Because, individual investors are buying stocks again! The argument is that when investors panicked after the market dropped in early 2009, it was a good time to buy. Therefore, after two years and a 100% stock market rise, investor buying... »

Will Friday’s Employment Report Make This a Perfect Week?

By John S. Tobey

The US economy has gotten standing ovations this week. All five major reports for January have been better than expected – some significantly so (see table below). Just one report is left: Employment. (more) This article is posted on SeekingAlpha.com »

Be Contrarian; Believe a ‘Real’ Bull Market Is Starting

By John S. Tobey

When I wrote “Time To Be A Contrarian” last June, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) had fallen to the 10,000 level. Mega/global fears swirled about. The contrarian position was “easy” – buy US stocks. “All” it took was focusing on company fundamentals, ignoring the scary news and going against what our stomachs were... »

Investors Jump Back Into U.S. Stock Mutual Funds

By John S. Tobey

The Investment Company Institute just reported the second week of significant inflows into U.S. stock mutual funds. The two-week total (through January 19) is $6.7 billion. Is this a sign of the top? Absolutely not. It shows the investors have shaken off 2010’s mega-risk/global-risk mindset that produced 34 straight weeks of U.S. stock mutual... »

Wall Street’s 2011 Stock Market Outlook: Up but Not Over-optimistic

By John S. Tobey

There have been some warnings that the US stock market’s rise has produced over-optimistic forecasts. However, Wall Street’s published 2011 stock market outlooks look reasonable, even a bit conservative. Here’s the picture… »

No, You STILL Haven’t Missed Out

By John S. Tobey

Last year I wrote “No, You Haven’t Missed Out” (October 1, 2009). Now, thirteen months later, that message still applies. Although conditions have improved from that more uncertain time, mid-2010’s detour into mega-trend frights (Greece, etc.) reversed investors building interest in US stocks. That detour was beneficial because it restrained US stock prices, allowing... »

The US Consumer Is Back and That Means…

By John S. Tobey

… the US economy is back. Forget the picture of deflated, fearful consumers keeping their 2/3 of the economy moribund. Normal times are upon us, making the 2011 outlook rosy. »

US Stocks vs. Bonds – The Obvious Choice

By John S. Tobey

Occasionally (rarely) there are times when the next investment trend is obvious. Today looks like one of those times. »

Retail Sales Indicate a Happy New (Stock Market) Year in 2011

By John S. Tobey

Do you have lingering doubts about the US economy? Is that worry keeping you out of the stock market? It’s understandable- We’ve been bombarded for months with warnings about impending crises and collapses. But it’s time to exit the past- The proof of recovery is here. Accepting that fact is the key to successful... »

/Quick Point/ – Today’s Score: Bulls 2, Bears 0

By John S. Tobey

Forget Bernanke and the Federal Reserve. The real news today is what drove the stock market up this morning. The Wall Street Journal’s mid-day article says it all… »

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