Tag Archive

Stock Market Has Become a 2011 Performance Leader

By John S. Tobey

For over two years, many investors have viewed the U.S. stock market as a poor investment. The reasons cited ranged from too risky to unpopular to low return expectations. Nevertheless, investors haven’t sat on their hands, earning near-zero returns in money market funds. They have actively invested in other investment areas. The surprise might... »

Be Contrarian; Believe a ‘Real’ Bull Market Is Starting

By John S. Tobey

When I wrote “Time To Be A Contrarian” last June, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) had fallen to the 10,000 level. Mega/global fears swirled about. The contrarian position was “easy” – buy US stocks. “All” it took was focusing on company fundamentals, ignoring the scary news and going against what our stomachs were... »

Investors Jump Back Into U.S. Stock Mutual Funds

By John S. Tobey

The Investment Company Institute just reported the second week of significant inflows into U.S. stock mutual funds. The two-week total (through January 19) is $6.7 billion. Is this a sign of the top? Absolutely not. It shows the investors have shaken off 2010’s mega-risk/global-risk mindset that produced 34 straight weeks of U.S. stock mutual... »

Book Review: “The Investment Answer”

By John S. Tobey

With the passing of Gordon Murray, co-author of “The Investment Answer,” the former PDF book is coming in print form next Tuesday (January 25).  The tantalizing title and the interviews with Gordon Murray have driven up interest. At Amazon, it is currently #1 among all books! So, let’s cut to the chase. Are Wall... »

A Key New Year’s Resolution: Invest for Growth

By John S. Tobey

Last December I provided four New Year’s investment resolutions that were applicable in all markets (listed below). It seemed many investors were still shell-shocked and needed to be reminded that no economic/market environment lasts forever. Therefore, it was important to continue practicing sound investment principles. For 2011, however, there is one resolution that many... »

US Stocks vs. Bonds – The Obvious Choice

By John S. Tobey

Occasionally (rarely) there are times when the next investment trend is obvious. Today looks like one of those times. »

Will Investors Return to US Stocks?

By John S. Tobey

Here’s an excellent question from a reader: “If small investors did not jump back into equities at 20% or 40% less, why would one think they will jump into equities now or at any time in the near future? They may well leave bonds and bond funds if interest rates rise, but that does... »

Prepare for Turn: Macro/Passive Out and Selective/Active In

By John S. Tobey

Macro investing is losing its grip on investment returns as “global” twists and turns (and frights) diminish in importance. In its place is a growing realization that security selection is back – that there is good money to be made by correctly separating the winners from the pack. Therefore, expect macro investing to give... »

More Advisors Say US Stocks’ Direction Is Up – A Warning Signal? No!

By John S. Tobey

The bears’ endeavors to predict the end of this rising market keep getting squelched. They want to believe there is some wrong-headed reason for stocks going up. Unfortunately, for them, the cause of this stock market’s gains is improving fundamentals: The economy (economists now are changing their tune and upping growth forecasts) and corporate... »

Beating Wall Street at Its Own Game (Part 4) – Products

By John S. Tobey

Be wary of Wall Street’s new products. They could be geared more to the emotions in your head than the opportunities in the markets. Wall Street is great at producing new products that many investors want. However, there are potential problems with buying whatever Wall Street is selling. »

Attractive US Stock Market Valuations – Here Today, Gone Tomorrow

By John S. Tobey

Last fall, I wrote “No, You Haven’t Missed Out,” explaining that, in spite of the market’s 50% run-up, US stocks remained attractively valued. Here is how I concluded that article: … it’s not too late. The 50% gain, while large, was off a very low base. We are not yet back to normal valuations,... »

Bonds Face Three Powerful, Negative Forces – Time to Consider the Warning Signals

By John S. Tobey

Good Friday was bad for bonds. In spite of the yearlong demand flow by investors, fundamentals keep chipping away at bond prices. Here is what’s wrong with bonds and why you should consider avoiding them… »

‘Bull Market’ Getting Closer as Name for This US Stock Rise

By John S. Tobey

So, when is the announcement going to take place that we are officially in a bull market? Doesn’t twelve months of significantly rising prices qualify? Judging by an internet search for “bull market,” the phrase is rarely used – at least in a positive way. An example of an alternative use is a CNBC... »

The Chinese Yuan’s Anticipated Rise – Investment Implications (Part 2)

By John S. Tobey

With yesterday’s explanation of exchange rates, we can now examine investment opportunities resulting from a Chinese yuan increase. My focus will be on Chinese company stocks. The easy conclusion is that the yuan’s appreciation means we can earn a bonus return by owning Chinese securities. However, “easy” in investing usually means everyone is already... »

Long Ignored, “Upside Risk” Returns – Is “Buyers’ Panic” Next?

By John S. Tobey

Early Release of Monday, March 8, Write-up This week’s news reports have been filled with better-than-expected news about the economy, industries and companies. Importantly, this good news has made its way beyond the “leading” indicators to the “coincident” ones, confirming the economy’s recuperation is on track. The risks we are used to hearing about... »

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