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Contrarian Investing
3 Steps To Winning In The New Bull Market
The “easy” money 3-year bull market is ending, but a new one is beginning. The previous, extended period of rising stock prices was built on improving fundamentals. The 2010 and 2011 mega-fear periods helped keep worry alive, allowing stock investors to acquire and hold attractively priced stocks. However, the shift to normality is upon... »
The 3 C’s Needed for Investment Success – Now More Than Ever
News reports, pundit predictions, radio talk shows and reader comments have reached loud, negative levels. Unbridled pessimism has sprung up regarding just about everything. Like last year at this time, events and facts have been blown out of proportion and only negative indicators are taken as the “truth” with which to forecast a trend.... »
Merck: Time to Buy a Rewarding, Long-Term Investment?
A rising market lifts all stocks, right? Well, not exactly. Even in a bull market, some stocks lag. Shareholders experience dismay, even distrust, from being left in the dust. That’s the situation with Merck (MRK). Weak performers today can become strong ones tomorrow, and the turnabout returns are usually quite good. So, let’s look... »
Be Contrarian; Believe a ‘Real’ Bull Market Is Starting
When I wrote “Time To Be A Contrarian” last June, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) had fallen to the 10,000 level. Mega/global fears swirled about. The contrarian position was “easy” – buy US stocks. “All” it took was focusing on company fundamentals, ignoring the scary news and going against what our stomachs were... »
Prepare for Turn: Macro/Passive Out and Selective/Active In
Macro investing is losing its grip on investment returns as “global” twists and turns (and frights) diminish in importance. In its place is a growing realization that security selection is back – that there is good money to be made by correctly separating the winners from the pack. Therefore, expect macro investing to give... »
New Investment Horizon Ahead – Four Steps for Adjusting Our Focus and Strategy
Previously I described why I think the macro investing trend is ending and that, in the midst of its popularity, we need to take a contrarian stand to get ready. Below are... »
How to Profit from Trend Changes
Yesterday I discussed a likely trend change coming (see “WSJ Accidentally Identifies Macro Investing’s Probable End of the Line“). Investing for such a change can be highly profitable. Trend changes are actually numerous, relating to virtually all investment types, groupings or management approaches. The goal isn’t to spot all of them. Here’s what’s needed… »
WSJ Accidentally Identifies Macro Investing’s Probable End of the Line
Last Friday, The Wall Street Journal published a lengthy, front-page article that unwittingly described why the powerful macro investing trend might be close to ending. “Unwittingly” because the article attempts to explain why the trend should be with us forever. »
Vanguard’s New ETFs Defy Anti-US Stock Trend – Do They See Something Coming?
Customary Wall Street practice is to follow the trend. Investment product creation and marketing tends to take the easy road. By focusing on what investors want now, firms figure they will simply change tactics when people want something different. In the end, however, the investor-client base that bought near the top feels taken advantage... »
Investors Give up on Value Stocks – Should We?
The Wall Street Journal just provided a big tip for investors: Buy value stocks. This tip was wrapped in a “contrarian” package, meaning they described well why investors are ignoring value. And whenever investors choose to pooh-pooh something, that is where we should look for potentially profitable investments. »
The Lonely Art of Contrarian Investing
Imagine that when the internet bubble peaked on March 15, 2000, you had already begun moving out of high-flying, technology stocks into stagnant, “old economy” ones. Or, when the market bottomed on March 9, 2009, you were already moving into actively managed stock funds. A pipe dream? No – it’s the result of successful... »
Time to Be a Contrarian
Investor and media sentiment has coalesced around a key thought: The economy is about to slow, stagnate and/or turn down – therefore, this is not a time to buy stocks. Whenever widespread agreement occurs in investing, invariably the smart action is contrary to common belief. Here’s what investors are doing and examples of how... »
Currency Moves Signal Panic Selling – Use It to Our Advantage
Yesterday I discussed how to use currency exchange rates for understanding global economic and financial conditions. Today, let’s look at how the rates can provide a window into emotional investment moves, particularly panic selling, and how we can use the information to our advantage. »
Closed-End Funds Selling at Discounts Offer Bonus Returns
Last month, I wrote, “Closed-End Funds – Structure and Price Discount Add to Potential Returns” (March 12), in which I described the benefit of the closed-end structure for portfolio managers and investors. Today, I want to explain why funds selling at a discount represent more than an opportunity to make an added gain if... »
Four Stocks That Illustrate Contrarian Investing in This Market
Contrarian investing is a key approach to earning superior returns. Most often considered appropriate for a value approach, “contrarian” aids all successful investors and investment managers, regardless of their particular style. I have written about contrarian investing and its importance in past articles (e.g., see the four-part series beginning with “It’s Time To Be... »
John Tobey on Seeking Alpha
