Contrarian Investing

Crazy But True: Being Contrarian Means Being Bullish

Thursday, March 6, 2014
Crazy But True: Being Contrarian Means Being Bullish

What does it take to convert stock market trepidation to enthusiasm? Clearly, a half-decade upmarket doesn’t do the trick. This market’s theme song should be, “Sixteen Tons,” paraphrased: You load a hundred percent and what do you get? Five years older and still no respect The evidence is in the “celebratory” headlines… This article... »

Caterpillar Is 2013’s Right Place, Wrong Time Stock – Brighter Days Ahead

Friday, November 22, 2013
Caterpillar Is 2013’s Right Place, Wrong Time Stock – Brighter Days Ahead

Search for good Caterpillar (CAT) news and we come up empty. Each quarter’s earnings report has been a downbeat event, significantly missing analysts’ reduced estimates and leading to the snowball effect of reduced future projections. Small wonder CAT’s stock price pattern looks miserable. Its -6% decline this year puts it in the 30th spot... »

Apple’s Shareholders Expect Too Much

Monday, March 12, 2012
Apple’s Shareholders Expect Too Much

Apple’s (AAPL) 2012 rapid price rise has produced the risk of a significant price drop. The problem is that the uptrend is being seen as confirmation of Apple’s superiority, so concern has diminished just when caution is warranted. Instead, there is building confidence that the fast gains will continue. Compounding this up = expectation-of-up... »

3 Steps To Winning In The New Bull Market

Saturday, February 18, 2012
3 Steps To Winning In The New Bull Market

The “easy” money 3-year bull market is ending, but a new one is beginning. The previous, extended period of rising stock prices was built on improving fundamentals. The 2010 and 2011 mega-fear periods helped keep worry alive, allowing stock investors to acquire and hold attractively priced stocks. However, the shift to normality is upon... »

The 3 C’s Needed for Investment Success – Now More Than Ever

Friday, August 12, 2011
The 3 C’s Needed for Investment Success – Now More Than Ever

News reports, pundit predictions, radio talk shows and reader comments have reached loud, negative levels. Unbridled pessimism has sprung up regarding just about everything. Like last year at this time, events and facts have been blown out of proportion and only negative indicators are taken as the “truth” with which to forecast a trend.... »

Merck: Time to Buy a Rewarding, Long-Term Investment?

Friday, February 11, 2011
Merck: Time to Buy a Rewarding, Long-Term Investment?

A rising market lifts all stocks, right? Well, not exactly. Even in a bull market, some stocks lag. Shareholders experience dismay, even distrust, from being left in the dust. That’s the situation with Merck (MRK). Weak performers today can become strong ones tomorrow, and the turnabout returns are usually quite good. So, let’s look... »

Be Contrarian; Believe a ‘Real’ Bull Market Is Starting

Monday, January 31, 2011
Be Contrarian; Believe a ‘Real’ Bull Market Is Starting

When I wrote “Time To Be A Contrarian” last June, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) had fallen to the 10,000 level. Mega/global fears swirled about. The contrarian position was “easy” – buy US stocks. “All” it took was focusing on company fundamentals, ignoring the scary news and going against what our stomachs were... »

Prepare for Turn: Macro/Passive Out and Selective/Active In

Monday, October 18, 2010
Prepare for Turn: Macro/Passive Out and Selective/Active In

Macro investing is losing its grip on investment returns as “global” twists and turns (and frights) diminish in importance. In its place is a growing realization that security selection is back – that there is good money to be made by correctly separating the winners from the pack. Therefore, expect macro investing to give... »

New Investment Horizon Ahead – Four Steps for Adjusting Our Focus and Strategy

Friday, October 1, 2010
New Investment Horizon Ahead – Four Steps for Adjusting Our Focus and Strategy

Previously I described why I think the macro investing trend is ending and that, in the midst of its popularity, we need to take a contrarian stand to get ready. Below are... »

How to Profit from Trend Changes

Wednesday, September 29, 2010
How to Profit from Trend Changes

Yesterday I discussed a likely trend change coming (see “WSJ Accidentally Identifies Macro Investing’s Probable End of the Line“). Investing for such a change can be highly profitable. Trend changes are actually numerous, relating to virtually all investment types, groupings or management approaches. The goal isn’t to spot all of them. Here’s what’s needed… »

WSJ Accidentally Identifies Macro Investing’s Probable End of the Line

Tuesday, September 28, 2010
WSJ Accidentally Identifies Macro Investing’s Probable End of the Line

Last Friday, The Wall Street Journal published a lengthy, front-page article that unwittingly described why the powerful macro investing trend might be close to ending. “Unwittingly” because the article attempts to explain why the trend should be with us forever. »

Vanguard’s New ETFs Defy Anti-US Stock Trend – Do They See Something Coming?

Friday, September 10, 2010
Vanguard’s New ETFs Defy Anti-US Stock Trend – Do They See Something Coming?

Customary Wall Street practice is to follow the trend. Investment product creation and marketing tends to take the easy road. By focusing on what investors want now, firms figure they will simply change tactics when people want something different. In the end, however, the investor-client base that bought near the top feels taken advantage... »

Investors Give up on Value Stocks – Should We?

Tuesday, August 31, 2010
Investors Give up on Value Stocks – Should We?

The Wall Street Journal just provided a big tip for investors: Buy value stocks. This tip was wrapped in a “contrarian” package, meaning they described well why investors are ignoring value. And whenever investors choose to pooh-pooh something, that is where we should look for potentially profitable investments. »

The Lonely Art of Contrarian Investing

Monday, June 7, 2010
The Lonely Art of Contrarian Investing

Imagine that when the internet bubble peaked on March 15, 2000, you had already begun moving out of high-flying, technology stocks into stagnant, “old economy” ones. Or, when the market bottomed on March 9, 2009, you were already moving into actively managed stock funds. A pipe dream? No – it’s the result of successful... »

Time to Be a Contrarian

Friday, June 4, 2010
Time to Be a Contrarian

Investor and media sentiment has coalesced around a key thought: The economy is about to slow, stagnate and/or turn down – therefore, this is not a time to buy stocks. Whenever widespread agreement occurs in investing, invariably the smart action is contrary to common belief. Here’s what investors are doing and examples of how... »

Search

John Tobey on Seeking Alpha

Seeking Alpha Certified

September 2017
S M T W T F S
« May    
 12
3456789
10111213141516
17181920212223
24252627282930