Archive for October, 2011

Low Consumer Confidence: A Nice Contrarian Indicator

Monday, October 31st, 2011
Low Consumer Confidence: A Nice Contrarian Indicator

Throughout the summer, we’ve heard about declining consumer confidence (AKA, sentiment). The conclusion typically drawn is that low consumer confidence now likely means low consumer spending ahead. Until recently, warnings have been sounded about weak winter holiday sales. Now, however, consumer confidence readings are creeping back, and retail sales are actually looking good. How... »

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Goodbye Boeing, Hello ITT

Monday, October 31st, 2011
Goodbye Boeing, Hello ITT

Boeing (BA) just reported good earnings, the 787 delays appear to be over and the company, along with Airbus (EAD.EU), picked up many orders from commercial airlines, now flush with baggage fee cash. My original reasons for owning Boeing have been fulfilled, so it’s time to move on to something more interesting. This article... »

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Wall Street Signals A Bull Market In U.S. Stocks

Friday, October 28th, 2011
Wall Street Signals A Bull Market In U.S. Stocks

It’s been slow coming. After a rare quadruple bottom, the U.S. stock market has risen this month (October, no less!) amidst continuing angst and warnings. The whisper economic reports (“psst… they’re actually looking better”) remained out of the spotlight as Europe, politics and other negative “stuff” was tossed about as proof that we were... »

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Netflix’s Classic Mistake Is Irreversible And Life-Threatening

Wednesday, October 26th, 2011
Netflix’s Classic Mistake Is Irreversible And Life-Threatening

Netflix (NFLX) management tried to do the right thing, but they implemented their strategy incorrectly. Unfortunately, their classic mistake cannot be rectified. Worse, because Netflix is non-diversified, the costly error could put it on a course similar to Blockbuster (BLOAQ). This article is posted on SeekingAlpha.com »

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Earnings Are Strike Two For Apple

Friday, October 21st, 2011
Earnings Are Strike Two For Apple

Strike one was Apple’s (AAPL) loss of Steve Jobs. Strike two is Apple’s financial report, while dazzling, coming in below expectations. Strike three? The pitch is on the way – but more about that later. First, let’s discuss why those first two items are clearly strikes. This article is posted on SeekingAlpha.com »

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3 Wall Street Stocks That Should Be Occupying Your Portfolio

Monday, October 17th, 2011
3 Wall Street Stocks That Should Be Occupying Your Portfolio

With their stocks well off their highs and significantly lagging the markets, Wall Street companies have gotten a bad rap. Add in congressional-regulatory disagreements plus “Occupy Wall Street” protests and many question the wisdom of owning any of these firms. From a contrarian standpoint, this is a good environment to consider buying the good... »

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Google’s Go-Nowhere Earnings Cycle

Saturday, October 15th, 2011
Google’s Go-Nowhere Earnings Cycle

How many times can this game be played? Google’s (GOOG) business strategies are questioned, recent acquisitions look less desirable, and doubts arise about the company’s ability to grow advertising revenues. All the while, the stock price meanders. Then: Voila! A nice, big earnings report drives up the price and silences the critics. However, the... »

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JPMorgan’s Wall-Street-Savvy Dimon Maps A Conservative Route

Friday, October 14th, 2011
JPMorgan’s Wall-Street-Savvy Dimon Maps A Conservative Route

Similar to Alcoa’s (AA) earnings report, JPMorgan Chase’s (JPM) has more meat in the comments than in the numbers. Contrary to Alcoa’s focus on growth, however, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon discussed the bank’s conservative, steady-as-she-goes approach, even cutting back on the previously announced aggressive branch expansion. The question is, “What gives?” This article is... »

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Alcoa’s Outlook Implies Large Market Gains Ahead; Will JP Morgan Follow?

Thursday, October 13th, 2011
Alcoa’s Outlook Implies Large Market Gains Ahead; Will JP Morgan Follow?

This earnings season just kicked off with a major surprise from Alcoa. It wasn’t what Alcoa (AA) did – it’s what it said. Although last quarter’s earnings came in under analysts’ already reduced estimates, management kept its sales growth forecasts virtually unchanged. “Kept” implies a passive, do-nothing attitude. Actually, it’s an active statement founded... »

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Last Week Set The Stage For A Bull Market

Monday, October 10th, 2011
Last Week Set The Stage For A Bull Market

Smokey the Bear just flipped his sign to “Safe” and headed toward his cave to hibernate. Just when the match touched the kindling, a drenching rainstorm put out the fire. We can now confidently walk in the forest (AKA, the stock market) once again. After last Monday’s high volume sell-off drove the market to... »

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Beware And Prepare For A Mini Market Flash Crash

Tuesday, October 4th, 2011
Beware And Prepare For A Mini Market Flash Crash

Smokey the Bear’s fire indicator is pointing to “Danger!” To me, the stock market’s conditions are like a tinder-dry forest. While we cannot know if a spark will ignite a fire, we can beware and prepare for the possibility. Article posted on SeekingAlpha.com »

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Stock Market Battle Near Resolution: Time To Be A Schizophrenic Opportunist

Monday, October 3rd, 2011
Stock Market Battle Near Resolution: Time To Be A Schizophrenic Opportunist

October’s first two weeks could provide stock investors with a good opportunity to make money — by being simultaneously bullish and bearish. However, this schizophrenic attitude doesn’t necessarily mean hedging is the best approach. I believe there is another strategy that could produce better gains in the end. Article posted on SeekingAlpha.com »

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Stock Market’s 3rd Quarter Drop Means 80% Chance Of Rise

Monday, October 3rd, 2011
Stock Market’s 3rd Quarter Drop Means 80% Chance Of Rise

Stock market quarters can have unique personalities. Usually, a quarter has a controlled range of volatility with different industries and stocks producing a diversified movement for the market as a whole. However, occasionally things come unglued and a strong trend affecting most stocks takes hold (either positive or negative). Of the past 200 quarters... »

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