Archive for January, 2010

S&P 500 Leaves Sick Bed – Healthy Earnings and Dividends in 2010

Friday, January 29th, 2010
S&P 500 Leaves Sick Bed – Healthy Earnings and Dividends in 2010

The current fourth quarter reports are putting 2009 into the history books. At the same time the focus on 2010 is making the broad-based Standard & Poor’s 500 Stock Index (S&P 500) look ever better. Importantly, the numbers are indicating a real return to normality. The improvement can be seen in the S&P 500... »

Tags: , , , , , , , , , , ,
Posted in Investment Insights | No Comments »

Apple and iPad? Cool. Caterpillar and Bullwhip? Exciting!

Thursday, January 28th, 2010
Apple and iPad? Cool. Caterpillar and Bullwhip? Exciting!

Apple certainly enhanced its “cool” factor with the introduction of iPad yesterday. But, to me, the real excitement was in The Wall Street Journal’s front page story about Caterpillar and the bullwhip effect (“’Bullwhip’ Hits Firms As Growth Snaps Back”, January 27, page A-1).  While the iPad is an important advance in consumer technology... »

Tags: , , , ,
Posted in Investment Insights | No Comments »

Obituary: Business Week’s “Business Outlook” Column

Wednesday, January 27th, 2010
Obituary: Business Week’s “Business Outlook” Column

I realize one must enjoy a favorite restaurant today because the ownership could change tomorrow. The new owners can change delicious meals into unsatisfying grub overnight. However, I never expected to see Bloomberg convert Business Week’s nutritious “Business Outlook” column into empty calories. »

Tags: ,
Posted in Investment Insights | No Comments »

Triple Witching Week – Three Economic Issues Meet in Washington DC

Tuesday, January 26th, 2010
Triple Witching Week – Three Economic Issues Meet in Washington DC

Forget Wall Street and Main Street. This week, it’s Washington DC and the US economy. Tomorrow night, President Obama’s State of the Union address. Tomorrow afternoon, the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision about interest rates. By week’s end (probably), the Senate’s vote on Ben Bernanke’s reappointment as Federal Reserve Board chairman. »

Tags: , , ,
Posted in Investment Insights | No Comments »

Wireless Wars Coming? – Beyond Red and Blue Maps

Monday, January 25th, 2010
Wireless Wars Coming? – Beyond Red and Blue Maps

This week, AT&T (Thursday) and Verizon (Tuesday) report their fourth quarter earnings. Even without following the stocks, we know by the plentiful G3 advertisements that the companies are engaged in a wireless battle. We expect these two biggies to be the US industry leaders, forging ahead as wireless technology continues to advance. »

Tags: ,
Posted in Investment Insights | No Comments »

Statistical Shortcuts Can Bog Down Your Investment Returns

Friday, January 22nd, 2010
Statistical Shortcuts Can Bog Down Your Investment Returns

As a final piece on statistics, I want to cover some popular statistical shortcuts applied to investing. Whether done innocently or intentionally, the results are the same – unusable. If action is taken based on them, the result can be both unexpected and undesirable. »

Tags: , ,
Posted in Investment Insights | No Comments »

Beware of Sound-Bite Logic – It’s Compelling but Misleading

Thursday, January 21st, 2010
Beware of Sound-Bite Logic – It’s Compelling but Misleading

“Question everything!” Excellent advice, especially for claims based on simplified statistics. What is amazing – read, disconcerting – is how pervasive improper statistical analysis is. So, we need to ensure pronouncements and conclusions we deem important are accurate. Here is a non-investment example… »

Tags: ,
Posted in Investment Insights | No Comments »

Statistics Can Be Fun – And Profitable

Wednesday, January 20th, 2010
Statistics Can Be Fun – And Profitable

Statistics fun? Well, yes, if they are profitable – and they can be. In investing it isn’t just wise statistical analysis that can make money – it is also the spotting of misapplied statistics by others. The frequency with which this happens is high enough to make it an important strategy for contrarian investing.... »

Tags: , , ,
Posted in Investment Insights | No Comments »

Successful Market Timing – It Requires Two Correct Actions

Tuesday, January 19th, 2010
Successful Market Timing – It Requires Two Correct Actions

After a major market drop, news comes out about the people who saw it coming and got out. There are always a few that do. The elements align to their way of thinking, and they look brilliant. But that’s not the end of the story. Those stars must then decide when to get back... »

Tags: , , ,
Posted in Investment Insights | No Comments »

Dissecting the Yield Curve, Looking for Inflation – Yup, There It Is

Friday, January 15th, 2010
Dissecting the Yield Curve, Looking for Inflation – Yup, There It Is

The recent bond yield increase is raising the question of inflation. Is it the cause? Yesterday, I included inflation with three other factors: economic growth, large bond supply and the effect of short-term rates rising. Because inflation can have serious negative effects, it is the item causing concern. Is there a way to get... »

Tags: , , , , , , ,
Posted in Investment Insights | No Comments »

The 2009 Earnings Are Coming! – OK, but What About 2010?

Thursday, January 14th, 2010
The 2009 Earnings Are Coming! – OK, but What About 2010?

Last October, the third quarter 2009 earnings reports were important. They revealed that the economy was improving. And they showed that leading companies had reestablished their operations and finances enough to generate earnings growth at the economy’s lower levels. They also provided evidence that financial companies were righting themselves. This was just the proof... »

Tags: , , , , , , , ,
Posted in Investment Insights | No Comments »

Long-term Interest Rates Break the Fed’s Hold – Short-term Next?

Wednesday, January 13th, 2010
Long-term Interest Rates Break the Fed’s Hold – Short-term Next?

Central banks usually have control over short-term interest rates. However, their efforts can fall flat when they try to influence long-term ones. This time is no different. The Federal Reserve has been buying US government bonds and mortgage securities, trying to hold down yields. After a period of “success”, the Fed is once again... »

Tags: , , , , , ,
Posted in Investment Insights | No Comments »

It’s Time We Had a Heart-to-Heart Talk – About Stocks

Tuesday, January 12th, 2010
It’s Time We Had a Heart-to-Heart Talk – About Stocks

A one-sided blog between two people who likely don’t know one another doesn’t match our picture of a heart-to-heart. Maybe I should call it a “heart-to-you” session. My purpose is to bypass the facts and insights I have been writing about and explain why I feel strongly that this is a great time to... »

Tags: , , , , ,
Posted in Investment Insights | No Comments »

How To Read the Financial Press – Warning! You Might Get Bullish

Monday, January 11th, 2010
How To Read the Financial Press – Warning! You Might Get Bullish

Most media reports have a slant – not to sway the reader, but to combine pieces of information into a sensible composite. High quality publications, to prevent biased reports, require that a reporter include all relevant information gathered. Today’s news reports are filled with positive information not reflected by the articles’ downbeat headlines. Here’s... »

Tags: , , , , ,
Posted in Investment Insights | 1 Comment »

How To Deal with Today’s US Stock Market Risk – Ignore It

Friday, January 8th, 2010
How To Deal with Today’s US Stock Market Risk – Ignore It

I continue to hear a litany of warnings about the US’s inability to grow or even function. Common fears are the massive deficit’s effects, runaway inflation, a second economic/market drop and perpetually high unemployment. Added to the mix are threats from global warming, a burgeoning world population and terrorism. Finally, there is the Mayan... »

Tags: , , , , ,
Posted in Investment Insights | No Comments »

Search

John Tobey on Seeking Alpha

Seeking Alpha Certified

January 2010
S M T W T F S
« Dec   Feb »
 12
3456789
10111213141516
17181920212223
24252627282930
31