Tag Archive

Easy Money (3) – Fed Ignores Those Harmed by Policy

By John S. Tobey

With all the talk about the Fed’s easy money actions, there remains one subject that is largely ignored: Who’s paying for the Fed’s largess? With low interest rates, lots of money and good intentions (increase employment and bolster the economy), the Fed’s easy money policy seems like a win-win situation. The only “cost” appears... »

Easy Money (1): Fed Touts Flawed/Risky Rationale

By John S. Tobey

Federal Reserve Vice Chairwoman Janet Yellen, attempting to explain the wisdom of the Fed’s easy money policy, instead exposed its weak reasoning. To understand what is going on, we need to come at it from three points of view: Easy Money (1) – Fed Touts Flawed/Risky Rationale Easy Money (2) – Fed Dismisses Inflation’s... »

Fed’s Easy Money Policy Ignores an Important Warning Sign

By John S. Tobey

A key indicator is flashing a warning for the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) to back off its easy money policy. But the signal goes unheeded. How important is the indicator? Very. Here’s the situation… This article is on SeekingAlpha.com »

PIMCO’s Bill Gross Cashes in U.S. Treasurys. What Should the Rest of Us Do?

By John S. Tobey

It’s official. Bill Gross is divorced from the U.S. Treasury. The PIMCO Total Return Fund, the largest U.S. mutual fund at about one-quarter trillion dollars, now holds no U.S. Government securities. What’s up? Is the U.S. about to be downgraded? Is it bankrupt? Or is this a political thing? None of the above, according... »

The Fed’s Unbalanced Decision: Stockholders Win, Bondholders Lose

By John S. Tobey

The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee decided to maintain the status quo (option #1 in the previous article, “Forecast for Bondholders: How the Fed’s Dilemma Will Affect You”). What does this decision mean for investors? »

Forecast for Bondholders: How the Fed’s Dilemma Will Affect You

By John S. Tobey

Previously, I discussed whether the Fed was paying attention to inflation’s apparent resurgence (“Tame Inflation Just Growled – Is the Fed Listening?”). Today, let’s talk about the box the Fed is in, what its choices are and how the direction chosen would affect bondholders. (more) This article is posted on SeekingAlpha.com »

Tame Inflation Just Growled – Is the Fed Listening?

By John S. Tobey

The Wall Street Journal’s lead article says it all: “Global Price Fears Mount” (By Brian Blackstone and Marcus Walker, January 24, page A-1). Rising inflation concerns have reached the “something must be done” stage. Everywhere except here in the US, that is. Now that anti-inflation actions (i.e., interest rate increases) are being discussed or... »

/Quick Point/ – China’s Interest Rate Hike Is Good for the US

By John S. Tobey

China took a positive step yesterday that will benefit not only itself, but also all those countries engaged economically with it, including the US. Here’s why… »

The Fed’s QE2 Decision – Let’s Hope It Includes an Exit Strategy

By John S. Tobey

Fed watching is in high gear, looking for signs that the Federal Reserve will initiate “Quantitative Easing 2” (QE2): Buying more bonds to keep interest rates low, foster economic growth and boost employment. Then there is the widespread discussion of how the news – whatever the decision – will affect the bond and stock... »

Bondholder Alert: Disconcerting News from the Federal Reserve

By John S. Tobey

Fed Vice Chair states the obvious. Two lessons learned: Easy money can lead to leverage and speculation Markets cannot be counted on to self-correct Wow! That reaction is not for the lessons. It’s for the admission that the Fed had to relearn them. US financial history is filled with examples. Indeed, the Federal Reserve... »

Is the Bond Market Changing Direction?

By John S. Tobey

Whether you call it a bubble or not, investors’ love affair with bonds may be ending. Longer-term bond losses in the last three weeks have been about one-half year’s interest income. It may not seem possible. After all, corporate bond yields rose only 0.22% from their 3.74% historic low on August 24 to 3.96%... »

Scrambling for Income? Avoid Being Carried Away by the Crowd

By John S. Tobey

The search for income is in high gear. With short-term investments providing little yield, investors are seeking out alternatives. There are large flows into all types of bonds, including riskier emerging market (third world) and low quality (junk). Even specialty securities like royalty trusts are finding wider appeal. Are these moves unhealthy and signs... »

A Double Dip to Enjoy: Interest Rates

By John S. Tobey

There continues to be an ongoing discussion about the economy potentially double dipping (AKA a repeat performance of the 2007-2008 bad times). Along with that worry is the stock market plummeting, with some pundits predicting a calamitous plunge. (I think Robert Prechter holds the current record with his Dow Jones Industrial Average forecast of... »

The New Housing Subsidy: Affordability

By John S. Tobey

You would think today’s mortgage rates of near 4.5% would bring happiness. Instead, some see the low rates as a sign of housing’s weakness, a measure of buyers’ difficulty in getting mortgage loans and/or an indicator of coming deflation. The rate decline does offer good news as we move into the summer home selling... »

Bonds Face Three Powerful, Negative Forces – Time to Consider the Warning Signals

By John S. Tobey

Good Friday was bad for bonds. In spite of the yearlong demand flow by investors, fundamentals keep chipping away at bond prices. Here is what’s wrong with bonds and why you should consider avoiding them… »


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June 2024