Tag Archive

Stock Market’s Health: Recovered, But Not Yet Normal

By John S. Tobey

The stock market has fully recovered its lost ground from this year’s sell-off. Analysts and investors have now incorporated lower economic growth forecasts, information from company earnings reports/outlooks, and mega-trend fears. Evaluating the earnings adjustments and the stock market’s valuation show a stock market that has recovered from its oversold position. Moreover, future growth... »

Here Come the Earnings Reports – Expect Positive Surprises (Again)

By John S. Tobey

The second quarter earnings are about to be reported. Will they be disappointing due to that period’s economic slowdown? Don’t expect it. Analysts have made their adjustments, and it looks like earnings growth will have continued. The graph below shows what’s happened… This article is posted on SeekingAlpha.com »

10 Good Looking Stocks in This Nervous Market

By John S. Tobey

The latest spate of worrisome news and warnings is just the thing for producing desirable stock prices. Wednesday’s stock market drop, while perhaps scary, was not a breakdown indicator. Rather, it moved many stocks down to attractive buy levels – i.e., near the bottom of recent ranges. This article is posted on SeekingAlpha.com »

Dow 20,000: How It Could Happen

By John S. Tobey

Most first quarter 2011 earnings reports are in and the news is good. Over three-quarters exceeded expectations. Moreover, the results showed a desirable combination of growing revenues, profitability and cash flow. Profit margins are being maintained by cost control, improved productivity and operating leverage. This combination of factors helped push analysts’ 2011 earnings expectations... »

Has Caterpillar’s Stock Become Overvalued?

By John S. Tobey

Caterpillar’s stock is hitting new highs. That fact, by itself, is not worrisome. But what about its valuation? Is that getting too high? Certainly this comparison makes it look so: Price/estimated earnings ratios: 2011 – Caterpillar = 17.8x; DJIA = 12.6x 2012 – Caterpillar = 13.7x; DJIA = 11.3x So, should we avoid Caterpillar... »

Stock Market’s Rise Is Supported by Values, Not Speculation

By John S. Tobey

A product’s value determines its price. For the stock market, that value has risen appreciably over the past 18 months. Small wonder, then, that stock prices are up likewise. Here’s the picture … (more) This article is on SeekingAlpha.com »

Wall Street’s 2011 Stock Market Outlook: Up but Not Over-optimistic

By John S. Tobey

There have been some warnings that the US stock market’s rise has produced over-optimistic forecasts. However, Wall Street’s published 2011 stock market outlooks look reasonable, even a bit conservative. Here’s the picture… »

The 2011 US Stock Market Outlook Looks Bright

By John S. Tobey

One year ago, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) was around 10,300. Today, it’s about 11,400, for a gain of over 10% (excluding dividends). Nice. Except, it actually underperformed its fundamentals. Its improved valuation gives us the prospect of a very happy new year indeed. Here’s why… »

Why the Coming Earnings Reports Are So Important

By John S. Tobey

Yesterday I wrote about the US stock market’s third hurdle approaching: The next quarterly earnings reports. (See “US Stocks’ Third Hurdle Just Around the Corner.“) What might we expect, and why do they matter? »

Investors Give up on Value Stocks – Should We?

By John S. Tobey

The Wall Street Journal just provided a big tip for investors: Buy value stocks. This tip was wrapped in a “contrarian” package, meaning they described well why investors are ignoring value. And whenever investors choose to pooh-pooh something, that is where we should look for potentially profitable investments. »

The Three-week Countdown to Stock Market’s 2011 Has Begun

By John S. Tobey

Stock analysts and investment managers are preparing for the post-Labor Day move to 2011. They know the way to earn superior returns is to anticipate well, and that means not waiting until New Year’s Day. This move to the next year, like last year’s, is especially challenging because neither the economy nor the stock... »

US Stock Market’s Trend About To Be Tested

By John S. Tobey

Last Friday, I suggested looking at US stock market valuations because they were back to the attractive levels of July 2009. (“It’s Time to Look at Stock Valuations” – June 25.) That was a fact-based analysis. Today, let’s add in the psychological side, then blend the two together. »

The Wall Street Journal: Stocks in ‘Parallel Universe’ – Soon: ‘Bull Market’

By John S. Tobey

The Wall Street Journal took another step closer to calling this stock market a bull market. To me, “Equities in a Parallel Universe” (Heard on the Street, by Richard Barley, March 31) is their most bullish article yet, continuing their conversion. »

Bears Get Nervous as Their Arrows Dwindle – The New York Times Misses the Mark

By John S. Tobey

The New York Times is notoriously late in recognizing a stock market trend change. On Monday, they published a bearish article that is a valuable read. It shows how empty the bears’ quiver has become. The article, “Stocks Soar, but Many Analysts Ask Why” (The New York Times, by Javier C. Hernandez, March 29,... »

S&P 500 Leaves Sick Bed – Healthy Earnings and Dividends in 2010

By John S. Tobey

The current fourth quarter reports are putting 2009 into the history books. At the same time the focus on 2010 is making the broad-based Standard & Poor’s 500 Stock Index (S&P 500) look ever better. Importantly, the numbers are indicating a real return to normality. The improvement can be seen in the S&P 500... »

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