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Vexed by VIX? Part 2

By John S. Tobey

It should be enough to rely on CBOE’s strongly worded advice not to expect too much from VIX – particularly since it is in CBOE’s interest to have investors embrace its use. However, some investors need proof. So below is a series of graphs that show the weakness of using VIX as an indicator... »

Vexed by VIX? Part 1

By John S. Tobey

We are told that VIX (the Volatility Index for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Stock Index) currently indicates investor complacency and, therefore, a coming stock market drop. Actually, that warning sounded last October. So why does the stock market keep rising? Has VIX (a.k.a. the “fear index”) lost its way? Or are stock market... »

Vanguard’s New ETFs Defy Anti-US Stock Trend – Do They See Something Coming?

By John S. Tobey

Customary Wall Street practice is to follow the trend. Investment product creation and marketing tends to take the easy road. By focusing on what investors want now, firms figure they will simply change tactics when people want something different. In the end, however, the investor-client base that bought near the top feels taken advantage... »

Oops! The Wall Street Journal Forgets How the Dow Jones Industrial Average Is Calculated

By John S. Tobey

The weekend edition of The Wall Street Journal carried the headline: “BofA Drives Dow Drop” (July 17-18, by Donna Kardos Yesalavich, page B-11). The problem is that Bank of America, in spite of its 9.2% Friday decline, is too small to have much effect on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). Too small? Yes,... »

The Wall Street Journal: Stocks in ‘Parallel Universe’ – Soon: ‘Bull Market’

By John S. Tobey

The Wall Street Journal took another step closer to calling this stock market a bull market. To me, “Equities in a Parallel Universe” (Heard on the Street, by Richard Barley, March 31) is their most bullish article yet, continuing their conversion. »

The Stock Market Roller Coaster – Enjoy the Ride

By John S. Tobey

Now is the time to get serious about owning US stocks. Conditions are giving investors the opportunity to rebuild their US stock allocations at good prices. There are many negative articles, and I believe they are causing a classic shakeout period in which traders and weak holders sell. »

S&P 500 Leaves Sick Bed – Healthy Earnings and Dividends in 2010

By John S. Tobey

The current fourth quarter reports are putting 2009 into the history books. At the same time the focus on 2010 is making the broad-based Standard & Poor’s 500 Stock Index (S&P 500) look ever better. Importantly, the numbers are indicating a real return to normality. The improvement can be seen in the S&P 500... »

Dow Jones Industrial Average – How Much Should Each Stock Weigh?

By John S. Tobey

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), like all indexes, needs a method for weighting each of its component stocks. Yesterday, I said I prefer to apply an equal weight. Today, I will explain that rationale further because, in the days ahead, I will be doing some analysis using that approach… »

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