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Ugly Market Produces Beautiful ‘Buy Low’ Opportunity
Nobody said “buy low” would be so difficult. What looks easy and obvious in a book or on a historic stock chart turns out to be challenging and uncertain. Today’s stock market is a good case example, especially with this week’s daily drops. Is this the beginning of another serious, mid-year decline, or is... »
Apple’s Drop Now Too Large To Ignore
It looked like Apple (AAPL) might be establishing a foundation at about $560. With the stock declining, this stopping point is important. The steady rise to $644 produced no clear support levels, and the stock needs a foothold to encourage investors and prevent frustrated selling. Then along came today’s breakdown. What next?… This article... »
Apple’s iCloud Upgrade: Creative Leadership Or Competitive Response?
Previously, I listed iCloud as one of Apple’s (AAPL) uncertain growth/profit areas, explaining: “iCloud – All the heavies are weighing in along with new, smaller firms, competing aggressively on product and pricing. This activity has the earmarks of a service quickly becoming a commodity with low profitability.” This view is fleshed out in Tuesday’s... »
Apple: Now A ‘Trading’ Stock
Apple (AAPL) appears to be changing from a buy-and-hold investment to a speculative trading vehicle. The cause is twofold: Larger fundamental uncertainty and weakened investor psychology. Here’s the explanation… This article is posted on SeekingAlpha.com »
Ultrabook: Anti-Apple Weapon Powering Up, Creating Uncertainty Plus Opportunity
Recently, The Wall Street Journal had two important articles: Walter Mossberg’s “Permission to Procrastinate: Wait to Get a New Laptop” and “All Eyes Turn to Windows 8.” Together, they describe the consumer/enterprise computing changes coming that could have a significant impact on the industry and individual companies, including Apple (AAPL). For Apple the changes... »
Apple’s 2-Day Drop And The Lesson To Learn
Accompanying Apple’s (AAPL) decline below $600 are forecasts that the fall is a mini-adjustment, a technical reaction, an indication of fundamental troubles brewing or the inevitable reversal of a stock taken too high. While speculating on the path from here is interesting, the drop offers an important takeaway: A favorite stock’s seeming invulnerability can... »
Gold’s Fundamentals Shining Again – Time To Cover Shorts
For the reasons described in “Gold, Silver At A Crossroads” and “Time To Buy Or Sell Gold?” I shorted gold and silver when their prices broke on February 29. I used equal allocations of the “inverse” (short position) ETFs, ProShares UltraShort Gold (GLL) and ProShares UltraShort Silver (ZSL). My expectation was that there would... »
Why It’s Time To Short Apple
Apple (AAPL) did it. It hit $600. Next stop $750, on the way to $1,000 – $1,500. Apple is officially in runaway, fad mode. Where it stops, who knows? But there are two strong reasons to believe the run is over. The first is what’s happening below the surface: Weak buying and potential selling... »
Apple’s Shareholders Expect Too Much
Apple’s (AAPL) 2012 rapid price rise has produced the risk of a significant price drop. The problem is that the uptrend is being seen as confirmation of Apple’s superiority, so concern has diminished just when caution is warranted. Instead, there is building confidence that the fast gains will continue. Compounding this up = expectation-of-up... »
Apple’s Clash: Rising Stock Price Vs. Declining Company Superiority
Last October, I reviewed Apple’s (AAPL) situation without Steve Jobs and with a rare, under-expectations earnings report. I likened those negative items to strikes one and two, but leaving Apple in the game. Strike three? I believe it has occurred, not as a single event, but as a combination of Wednesday’s new iPad announcement... »
Market Diagnosis: Opportunities Ahead, But Not Yet
After a smooth rise from last year’s lows, stocks stalled out over the past few weeks. Which way would they go? Many pundits predicted higher prices ahead, using the rationale of “still cheap.” However, this is one of those times when valuation measures don’t mean much. Here’s why, how we should view this drop... »
Time To Buy Or Sell Gold? 3 Historical Views To Help Decide
Today’s bullish/bearish gold sentiments are mismatched. Bulls list gold’s preservation and protection strengths, and bears point to its high price. To improve the debate, we need to get away from current events and examine history. Here are three periods and methodologies that provide the perspectives needed… This article is posted on SeekingAlpha.com »
Bernanke Ignites Bear Market In Gold And Silver
Bernanke today didn’t match the scary caricature envisioned by gold and silver bulls. Sensible and restrained, he failed to stoke the easy money, worthless dollar, hyperinflation frights that have kept gold and silver buoyed. What next? Today’s sharp gold and silver price drops could be the start of a serious bear market. With the... »
Gold, Silver At A Crossroads: Opportunity For Gains Or Risk Of Extended Decline?
Gold and silver prices, after peaking in 2011, have sought to reestablish foundation levels. They seem to have succeeded in two ways. First, both metals once again travel in unison with silver having given up its wanderlust. Since their lengthy uptrends began in late 2006, both have risen about 200%. Second, they have recently... »
Shun Google Until Management Is Replaced
For over two years, Google (GOOG) management has been unable to move the company’s stock ahead. Since December 2009, GOOG has had a 0% return, even though the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 30% and Apple (AAPL) is up 150%. The question is, “Why”? Is it because management has been foundation building for... »
John Tobey on Seeking Alpha
