Investment Insights

Homebuilders Up, But It’s Not Too Late To Buy

Thursday, February 27, 2014
Homebuilders Up, But It’s Not Too Late To Buy

New homebuyers apparently ignored the winter weather. The January sales report shows a large increase and pushed the homebuilder stock uptrend further ahead. However, we need to avoid placing too much emphasis on that one number, as discussed below. More importantly is the underlying upward trend and the potential for excellent growth in new... »

Divesting For Growth – Think Chevron And GE, Not Coke

Wednesday, February 19, 2014
Divesting For Growth – Think Chevron And GE, Not Coke

The Wall Street Journal today (2/19) noted that the Wall Street divestiture cycle is in full swing, spurred on by activist shareholders (“New Push to Throw Assets Overboard”). Companies ranging from chemical giants to restaurant chains have come under fire from shareholders wanting to break them apart, arguing that businesses perform better when they... »

1929-Style Crash Coming? 4 Steps For Dealing With Doomsday Prophecies

Friday, February 14, 2014
1929-Style Crash Coming? 4 Steps For Dealing With Doomsday Prophecies

Here they go again. The self-anointed prophets of doom are trying to scare us as they make a name for themselves. Their egotistical aims are base, their analyses are false and their methods are despicable. Yet, their message of the disaster that will befall nonbelievers inevitably gains new disciples time and again. Fear mongers... »

K-Cup + Coke = Huge Green Mountain Potential — Today’s Rise Likely Just The First Step

Thursday, February 6, 2014
K-Cup + Coke = Huge Green Mountain Potential — Today’s Rise Likely Just The First Step

Coca-Cola’s (KO) 10-year contract with Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR), along with an investment in the firm, is one of those unusual game changer announcements. Similar to an oil company discovering a large reserve or, perhaps even better, Steve Jobs announcing the iPad, GMCR’s fundamentals changed overnight. Better yet, those fundamentals cannot be calculated... »

Stock Market’s Plunge Lights Up Two ‘Buy’ Indicators – Now What?

Monday, February 3, 2014
Stock Market’s Plunge Lights Up Two ‘Buy’ Indicators – Now What?

That was fast. In one day, the market and the media triggered the two indicators discussed in “Stock Market Support Is Fragile – 2 Indicators And 2 Strategies For Success If 2nd Shoe Falls.” All it took was a 326-point drop in the DJIA. The question now is whether to act on the flashing... »

Stock Market Support Is Fragile – 2 Indicators And 2 Strategies For Success If 2nd Shoe Falls

Monday, February 3, 2014
Stock Market Support Is Fragile – 2 Indicators And 2 Strategies For Success If 2nd Shoe Falls

From January’s negative stock market performance comes the pursuit for the answer to “Why?” The search has produced the usual suspects: Overvaluation, reaction to 2013’s high return, long overdue “correction,” and sales/earnings disappointments (actual and/or outlook). Then there are the coincidental events: Fed confirming its taper policy and emerging markets/currencies raising havoc once again.... »

2014 Conundrum: Stocks Down, Bonds Up — 4 Reasons Why

Friday, January 24, 2014
2014 Conundrum: Stocks Down, Bonds Up — 4 Reasons Why

With 2013’s market trends (stocks up, bonds down) seemingly established, and year-end fundamentals pointing to improvement and growth, the forecast was for 2014 to be more of the same – perhaps even better. Anticipating happy news, investors jiggered their portfolios, then sat back to watch the “January effect” launch the New Year’s bull market,... »

Best Buy Stock Adrift Without Growth Or Value Lifelines — Traders Circle

Monday, January 20, 2014
Best Buy Stock Adrift Without Growth Or Value Lifelines — Traders Circle

Best Buy’s shocking 2014 news negated its 2013 growth status. Management’s strategy stumbled, turning hoped-for sales and earnings growth into confirmed declines in both. Last year’s resurrected growth story evaporated and with it, almost two-thirds of 2013’s outstanding rise (from $12 to $44, now down to $24). Analysts, fund managers and individual investors alike... »

Best Buy’s ‘Shocking’ Drop Provides Reality Check For All Investors

Thursday, January 16, 2014
Best Buy’s ‘Shocking’ Drop Provides Reality Check For All Investors

No one can say the risk was hidden. Best Buy cautioned last November about the risks in the coming holiday season. The accompanying 10% stock drop back then signaled management’s comments were a serious concern. Now falls the other shoe: A huge 28+% stock plunge following Best Buy’s confirmation of risk becoming reality. (This... »

Ditch ‘Dogs Of The Dow’ – The Mutts Have Bad Genes, Improper Breeding And False Papers

Thursday, January 9, 2014
Ditch ‘Dogs Of The Dow’ – The Mutts Have Bad Genes, Improper Breeding And False Papers

The ‘Dogs of the Dow’ reasoning sounds sensible, the process is simple and the result are being reported as proof that it works. However, appearances are not what they seem. The basis (genes) is bad, the process (breeding) is improper and the results (papers) are false. Here’s the explanation… This article is published on... »

Apple’s Missing Ingredient Dulls Its Outlook

Saturday, January 4, 2014
Apple’s Missing Ingredient Dulls Its Outlook

All analysts and investors agree on one thing: Innovation created Apple (AAPL). But innovation has two forms: revolutionary and evolutionary. Revolutionary innovation is what Steve Jobs did so well. His creations shook up the status quo and produced new markets with his dramatically new, must-have products. But he also was expert at the follow-on... »

The Great Recession Is Dead: 10 Steps For Success In 2014

Tuesday, December 24, 2013
The Great Recession Is Dead: 10 Steps For Success In 2014

It’s over. The Great Recession is officially relegated to Wikipedia and academic studies. The financial problems are fixed. Even Bernanke is looking for historical analysis of his efforts as Yellen arrives and the Fed shifts gears. Kiplinger’s employment/unemployment analysis shows an advancing U.S. economy with large, new and exciting growth needs. The past few... »

Five Reasons It’s Time To Buy Bonds Again

Saturday, December 21, 2013
Five Reasons It’s Time To Buy Bonds Again

Bonds in 2013 finally got their comeuppance. After a long, pleasing ride of income + price gains, the bond market decided the party was over. It only took four months for the 10-year U.S. Treasury note to drop the equivalent of over five years’ interest. All but the shortest maturities suffered similar fates. So... »

Don’t Put Your Portfolio On Autopilot For The Next Two Weeks

Friday, December 20, 2013
Don’t Put Your Portfolio On Autopilot For The Next Two Weeks

Prior to the 1982 holiday season, I was having lunch with one of Bank of America’s top pension fund managers, Frank Husic, then at Alliance Capital. (I was the VP in charge of the pension and savings plans’ investments.) When I asked about his holiday plans, he surprised me, saying he would be at... »

Gogo’s Downer PR News Is Actually A Sign Of Upward Progress

Thursday, December 19, 2013
Gogo’s Downer PR News Is Actually A Sign Of Upward Progress

Today’s PR announcement was received badly, pushing Gogo (GOGO) down 15%. The stock is now over 25% below its recent high. While such performance is evidence of something seriously amiss, the news is actually a sign of growth and maturity, not trouble and concern. Here’s the explanation… This article is published on Forbes.com »

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