The Wall Street Journal, in “Strong Earnings Season Appears Baked In” (Ahead of the Tape, by Kelly Evans, March 30, page C-1), describes an unusual pattern leading up to this quarter’s earnings reports: Both analysts and corporations are trimming expectations less than usual. (Each group typically trims its forecasts near quarter end to avoid... »
The New York Times is notoriously late in recognizing a stock market trend change. On Monday, they published a bearish article that is a valuable read. It shows how empty the bears’ quiver has become. The article, “Stocks Soar, but Many Analysts Ask Why” (The New York Times, by Javier C. Hernandez, March 29,... »
Following the passage of the new health care plan, many companies are announcing earnings charges. The end points appear ominous: New health plan –> Higher company expenses. Actually, the charges are one-time adjustments of a balance sheet asset that contains an unusual income tax benefit previously booked as earnings. Here is how that benefit... »
Housing is a hot button for many investors. They do not see how the housing market could improve this year, and a number believe prices could fall further. Today’s write-up expands on yesterday’s article (“Housing Problems Are Dissipating and Fragmenting – Think About Buying“) by taking a look at housing’s indicators. »
I just saw an article saying the stock market’s run-up is ignoring housing’s problems. That supposition is wrong on many counts. »
Do a search for news reports containing the phrase, “52-week high,” and you will get about 5,000 hits. Check the latest Barron’s for new highs and lows (March 22, “Market Laboratory – Stocks,” page M-46), and you will find sixteen columns of companies in small type font. The count: »
Last Friday I described the potential bull market that could come from investors showing an interest in US stocks. And I mentioned an article that indicated such a move could be starting. Two more articles just came out, providing further support. »
Investors, analysts and pundits can look at the same economic measures and come away with opposing views as to the economy’s health and future. The economy’s “trees” can range from vibrant to blighted, allowing differing economic “forest” diagnoses. As a result, we see predictions of economic normalcy and growth side-by-side with reversal and collapse.... »
So, when is the announcement going to take place that we are officially in a bull market? Doesn’t twelve months of significantly rising prices qualify? Judging by an internet search for “bull market,” the phrase is rarely used – at least in a positive way. An example of an alternative use is a CNBC... »
It’s called “fighting the tape.” In this market, that means bearish advisers and short-sellers who refuse to admit that they missed the boat. Good news and positive trends are dismissed or ignored, and new negatives are touted as the drivers of the next smashup, just around the corner. Here is one example… »
An investment manager was once asked how he liked being judged by performance numbers. He replied that he was fine with it – so long as he got to pick the beginning and ending points. We’re seeing articles written that do just that, particularly since we are now one year from the stock market’s... »
What do the health care plan, Chinese currency exchange and Wall Street regulation have in common? They are all popular “pre-news” stories. Negotiating stances, trial balloons and political posturing are reported as news, but they are preliminary pronouncements that precede the real news – i.e., the final conclusion. Congress’ health care plan activity is... »
The saying “You can’t go home again” doesn’t apply to US corporations. Caterpillar’s latest announcement is that it is bringing some major equipment production back to the US. What on earth is going on here? And what does it mean to the US economy – and to investors? Well, this is upbeat news and... »
Yesterday, I listed four closed-end funds that invest in China. Such funds are well suited to specialized investing, like developing/emerging markets. In addition, there are market environments when closed-end funds in general offer price advantages. I believe now is one of those times. »
The last two days we have reviewed the Chinese yuan exchange rate, it’s anticipated rise and how that presents an opportunity for owning Chinese stocks. Funds seem to be the best route, and here are criteria for selecting a promising one. »
