Tag Archive

Stock Market’s Health: Recovered, But Not Yet Normal

By John S. Tobey

The stock market has fully recovered its lost ground from this year’s sell-off. Analysts and investors have now incorporated lower economic growth forecasts, information from company earnings reports/outlooks, and mega-trend fears. Evaluating the earnings adjustments and the stock market’s valuation show a stock market that has recovered from its oversold position. Moreover, future growth... »

Here Come the Earnings Reports – Expect Positive Surprises (Again)

By John S. Tobey

The second quarter earnings are about to be reported. Will they be disappointing due to that period’s economic slowdown? Don’t expect it. Analysts have made their adjustments, and it looks like earnings growth will have continued. The graph below shows what’s happened… This article is posted on SeekingAlpha.com »

Dow 20,000: How It Could Happen

By John S. Tobey

Most first quarter 2011 earnings reports are in and the news is good. Over three-quarters exceeded expectations. Moreover, the results showed a desirable combination of growing revenues, profitability and cash flow. Profit margins are being maintained by cost control, improved productivity and operating leverage. This combination of factors helped push analysts’ 2011 earnings expectations... »

Why the Coming Earnings Reports Are So Important

By John S. Tobey

The year 2011 is a new environment for stock investors. Recession and recovery are diminishing factors for many companies’ earnings. The good news is that we can look forward to more reliable growth estimates and, therefore, more confident use of valuation measures. The bad news is that we are losing the rebound growth boost... »

Stock Market’s Rise Is Supported by Values, Not Speculation

By John S. Tobey

A product’s value determines its price. For the stock market, that value has risen appreciably over the past 18 months. Small wonder, then, that stock prices are up likewise. Here’s the picture … (more) This article is on SeekingAlpha.com »

/Quick Point/ – 2010 Stock Market Set to Music

By John S. Tobey

In a series of 5 weekday notes, this piano composition matches the Dow Jones Industrial Average’s 2010 performance. »

No, You STILL Haven’t Missed Out

By John S. Tobey

Last year I wrote “No, You Haven’t Missed Out” (October 1, 2009). Now, thirteen months later, that message still applies. Although conditions have improved from that more uncertain time, mid-2010’s detour into mega-trend frights (Greece, etc.) reversed investors building interest in US stocks. That detour was beneficial because it restrained US stock prices, allowing... »

The 2011 US Stock Market Outlook Looks Bright

By John S. Tobey

One year ago, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) was around 10,300. Today, it’s about 11,400, for a gain of over 10% (excluding dividends). Nice. Except, it actually underperformed its fundamentals. Its improved valuation gives us the prospect of a very happy new year indeed. Here’s why… »

The Stock Market’s Gyrations and Their Meaning

By John S. Tobey

Monday morning, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) “slipped,” “slid,” and “slumped” below 11,000. Then, in the afternoon, it “rebounded” and “recovered.” Are those descriptors accurate? Well, maybe. More likely, though, the stock market simply acted normally and fluctuated. But there is an important question behind the stock market’s last few month’s of basically... »

Fall Earnings Season Starts – What to Watch For

By John S. Tobey

I have described this earnings period as an important third hurdle (out of three) to get the stock market back on track. What should we watch for, and what would make this earnings season a successful one? »

Why the Coming Earnings Reports Are So Important

By John S. Tobey

Yesterday I wrote about the US stock market’s third hurdle approaching: The next quarterly earnings reports. (See “US Stocks’ Third Hurdle Just Around the Corner.“) What might we expect, and why do they matter? »

The Three-week Countdown to Stock Market’s 2011 Has Begun

By John S. Tobey

Stock analysts and investment managers are preparing for the post-Labor Day move to 2011. They know the way to earn superior returns is to anticipate well, and that means not waiting until New Year’s Day. This move to the next year, like last year’s, is especially challenging because neither the economy nor the stock... »

Oops! The Wall Street Journal Forgets How the Dow Jones Industrial Average Is Calculated

By John S. Tobey

The weekend edition of The Wall Street Journal carried the headline: “BofA Drives Dow Drop” (July 17-18, by Donna Kardos Yesalavich, page B-11). The problem is that Bank of America, in spite of its 9.2% Friday decline, is too small to have much effect on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). Too small? Yes,... »

US Stock Market’s Trend About To Be Tested

By John S. Tobey

Last Friday, I suggested looking at US stock market valuations because they were back to the attractive levels of July 2009. (“It’s Time to Look at Stock Valuations” – June 25.) That was a fact-based analysis. Today, let’s add in the psychological side, then blend the two together. »

It’s Time to Look at Stock Valuations

By John S. Tobey

Last month, I concluded a write-up by saying I would next be looking at stock valuations (Building on Current Earnings Foundation, Analysts Project Future Growth – May 20). Then the five baddies hit (Goldman, Greece, BP, Afghanistan and flash crash) and valuations became moot. Uncertainty took control of the stock market. So, I decided... »

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