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Time To Be Contrarian About U.S. Stock Holdings

By John S. Tobey

I recently wrote about U.S. stocks recovering their valuations after this year’s sell-off. However, that doesn’t mean the market’s rise is over. There is another source of gains that is potentially very large. However, to view it, we need to take a contrarian stance. This article is posted on SeekingAlpha.com »

Low Consumer Confidence: A Nice Contrarian Indicator

By John S. Tobey

Throughout the summer, we’ve heard about declining consumer confidence (AKA, sentiment). The conclusion typically drawn is that low consumer confidence now likely means low consumer spending ahead. Until recently, warnings have been sounded about weak winter holiday sales. Now, however, consumer confidence readings are creeping back, and retail sales are actually looking good. How... »

The 3 C’s Needed for Investment Success – Now More Than Ever

By John S. Tobey

News reports, pundit predictions, radio talk shows and reader comments have reached loud, negative levels. Unbridled pessimism has sprung up regarding just about everything. Like last year at this time, events and facts have been blown out of proportion and only negative indicators are taken as the “truth” with which to forecast a trend.... »

Mass Panic Selling Generates Some ‘Positive’ Indicators

By John S. Tobey

Identifying the turning point of a runaway down market is nearly impossible. It requires figuring out when emotions and shares offered for sale will peter out. However, there are some signs that crop up when markets get ugly. August 8, was one of those days, and here is the picture. This article is posted... »

Silver Is in Blow-off Phase – Top Could Be Near

By John S. Tobey

Silver has entered a third growth phase, with the price increasing at about a 2,000% annual rate. Clearly, those gains are unsustainable. The question is, at what point will the trend reverse? This article is posted on SeekingAlpha.com. »

Merck: Time to Buy a Rewarding, Long-Term Investment?

By John S. Tobey

A rising market lifts all stocks, right? Well, not exactly. Even in a bull market, some stocks lag. Shareholders experience dismay, even distrust, from being left in the dust. That’s the situation with Merck (MRK). Weak performers today can become strong ones tomorrow, and the turnabout returns are usually quite good. So, let’s look... »

Be Contrarian; Believe a ‘Real’ Bull Market Is Starting

By John S. Tobey

When I wrote “Time To Be A Contrarian” last June, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) had fallen to the 10,000 level. Mega/global fears swirled about. The contrarian position was “easy” – buy US stocks. “All” it took was focusing on company fundamentals, ignoring the scary news and going against what our stomachs were... »

Prepare for Turn: Macro/Passive Out and Selective/Active In

By John S. Tobey

Macro investing is losing its grip on investment returns as “global” twists and turns (and frights) diminish in importance. In its place is a growing realization that security selection is back – that there is good money to be made by correctly separating the winners from the pack. Therefore, expect macro investing to give... »

/Quick Point/ – Savvy Investment Manager: Time to Use Contrarian Approach and Buy US Stocks

By John S. Tobey

Important read: “You Should Have Timed the Market” (By Brett Arends September 29) Key items: »

How to Profit from Trend Changes

By John S. Tobey

Yesterday I discussed a likely trend change coming (see “WSJ Accidentally Identifies Macro Investing’s Probable End of the Line“). Investing for such a change can be highly profitable. Trend changes are actually numerous, relating to virtually all investment types, groupings or management approaches. The goal isn’t to spot all of them. Here’s what’s needed… »

WSJ Accidentally Identifies Macro Investing’s Probable End of the Line

By John S. Tobey

Last Friday, The Wall Street Journal published a lengthy, front-page article that unwittingly described why the powerful macro investing trend might be close to ending. “Unwittingly” because the article attempts to explain why the trend should be with us forever. »

Vanguard’s New ETFs Defy Anti-US Stock Trend – Do They See Something Coming?

By John S. Tobey

Customary Wall Street practice is to follow the trend. Investment product creation and marketing tends to take the easy road. By focusing on what investors want now, firms figure they will simply change tactics when people want something different. In the end, however, the investor-client base that bought near the top feels taken advantage... »

Value Screening US Stocks – Example with 7 “Picks”

By John S. Tobey

Screening can turn up some good US stock values in today’s market (see my article “Investors Give up on Value Stocks – Should We?” for explanation). Below is an example in which I set the hurdles high, yet still had 7 leading companies clear every one. »

Investors Give up on Value Stocks – Should We?

By John S. Tobey

The Wall Street Journal just provided a big tip for investors: Buy value stocks. This tip was wrapped in a “contrarian” package, meaning they described well why investors are ignoring value. And whenever investors choose to pooh-pooh something, that is where we should look for potentially profitable investments. »

Home Sales Analysis Misses the Mark, Providing Buying Opportunities

By John S. Tobey

Lower home sales articles were everywhere this week and were universally loud and dire. On Wednesday, The Wall Street Journal linked almost every market problem to home sales, starting with its front page article proclaiming, “Plunge in Home Sales Stokes Economy Fears” (By Sudeep Reddy and Nick Timiraos, August 25, page A-1). Here’s what... »

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