Monday, January 31st, 2011
When I wrote “Time To Be A Contrarian” last June, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) had fallen to the 10,000 level. Mega/global fears swirled about. The contrarian position was “easy” – buy US stocks. “All” it took was focusing on company fundamentals, ignoring the scary news and going against what our stomachs were... »
Tags: Asset allocation, Bull market, Contrarian, Contrarian invest, Equities, Forecast, Investing success, Outlook, Stock market outlook, Stocks, Wall Street
Posted in Contrarian Investing, Investment Insights | No Comments »
Thursday, January 27th, 2011
The Investment Company Institute just reported the second week of significant inflows into U.S. stock mutual funds. The two-week total (through January 19) is $6.7 billion. Is this a sign of the top? Absolutely not. It shows the investors have shaken off 2010’s mega-risk/global-risk mindset that produced 34 straight weeks of U.S. stock mutual... »
Tags: Asset allocation, Bonds, Bull market, Equities, Mutual fund flows, Outlook, Stock funds, Stocks, Trend change
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Thursday, January 27th, 2011
The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee decided to maintain the status quo (option #1 in the previous article, “Forecast for Bondholders: How the Fed’s Dilemma Will Affect You”). What does this decision mean for investors? »
Tags: Bernanke, Bonds, Federal Reserve, FOMC, Forecast, Greenspan, Interest Rates, Outlook, Stocks
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Tuesday, January 25th, 2011
Previously, I discussed whether the Fed was paying attention to inflation’s apparent resurgence (“Tame Inflation Just Growled – Is the Fed Listening?”). Today, let’s talk about the box the Fed is in, what its choices are and how the direction chosen would affect bondholders. (more) This article is posted on SeekingAlpha.com »
Tags: Bernanke, Bonds, Economy, Employment, Federal Reserve, FOMC, Inflation, Interest Rates, Money supply, Trend change
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Tuesday, January 25th, 2011
The Wall Street Journal’s lead article says it all: “Global Price Fears Mount” (By Brian Blackstone and Marcus Walker, January 24, page A-1). Rising inflation concerns have reached the “something must be done” stage. Everywhere except here in the US, that is. Now that anti-inflation actions (i.e., interest rate increases) are being discussed or... »
Tags: Ben Bernanke, Bernanke, Easy money, Economy, Federal Reserve, FOMC, Inflation, Interest Rates, Money supply, Trend change
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Friday, January 21st, 2011
With the passing of Gordon Murray, co-author of “The Investment Answer,” the former PDF book is coming in print form next Tuesday (January 25). The tantalizing title and the interviews with Gordon Murray have driven up interest. At Amazon, it is currently #1 among all books! So, let’s cut to the chase. Are Wall... »
Tags: Asset allocation, Beat Wall Street, Book review, Wall Street
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Wednesday, January 19th, 2011
Uncertain about your investment in Apple without Steve Jobs? A relevant historical comparison is Disney and its loss of Walt Disney in 1966. (more) This article is posted at SeekingAlpha.com. »
Tags: Equities, Management change, Stocks
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Friday, January 14th, 2011
Much has been made about the latest jobs report. Does that report set the stage for a lackluster 2011? No. In fact, the forecast looks good – perhaps even rosy. »
Tags: 2011 outlook, Economy, Employment, Forecast, Leading indicator, Outlook, Unemployment
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Tuesday, January 11th, 2011
There have been some warnings that the US stock market’s rise has produced over-optimistic forecasts. However, Wall Street’s published 2011 stock market outlooks look reasonable, even a bit conservative. Here’s the picture… »
Tags: Bull market, Equities, Forecast, Outlook, P/E ratio, Price/earnings ratio, Stocks, Wall Street
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Saturday, January 8th, 2011
After Seeking Alpha selected my article, “New EPA Mileage Standards Could Stimulate Auto Sales,” an investor made the following comment: “Every time CAFE standards rise, the total number of deaths from car accidents rises (lighter cars means less survivability).” The statement is incorrect, as I show below. More importantly, this... »
Tags: Auto industry, Automobile industry, Investing success, Statistical analysis
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Friday, January 7th, 2011
A common view of government regulations is that they are a necessary evil. They can help in areas such as safety, but they can also interfere with free choice and efficiency – plus, they can be costly. However, there is an oft-overlooked benefit: Regulations can spur economic development. General Motors’ (GM) story in the... »
Tags: Auto industry, Automobile industry, EPA mileage, Equities, Government regulation, Stocks
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Thursday, January 6th, 2011
Just when we thought paying the US government deficit was the highest concern, a joint political effort focused on future economic growth is emerging. The approach? To rewrite the corporate tax rules, with the goals of simplification and lowering the tax rates. Here’s why this action could be a boon – to the US... »
Tags: Corporate taxes, Equities, Forecast, Government regulation, Government taxation, Outlook, Stocks
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Tuesday, January 4th, 2011
No, you don’t have to buy private shares of Facebook. There is a more diversified, less risky (and possibly more profitable) approach. Not seen since the 1960s have private investors had access to IPO gains from the issuer’s side. Here’s the story: »
Tags: Beat Wall Street, Equities, Forecast, Investing success, IPO, Outlook, Private equity, Stocks, Venture capital, Wall Street
Posted in Beat Wall Street, Investment Insights | No Comments »
Tuesday, January 4th, 2011
In a series of 5 weekday notes, this piano composition matches the Dow Jones Industrial Average’s 2010 performance. »
Tags: DJIA, Dow Jones Industrial Average, Equities, Stocks
Posted in Quick Points | No Comments »
Monday, January 3rd, 2011
Commentators say 2010 was a year of “unexpected” economic and market gains in the face of worries, concerns and reversals. That’s because those pundits allowed 2009’s uncertainties to carry over into their thinking. Looking for the next big, bad event produced numerous false warnings and unfulfilled dire predictions. 2011’s outlook is for growth and... »
Tags: 2011 outlook, Economy, Equities, Forecast, Outlook, Risk, Stocks, Trend change
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