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Forget The Fed: Business Has Its Own QE3

By John S. Tobey

Official “Quantitative Expansion” (i.e., the Federal Reserve’s increasing the money supply by buying bonds) is no longer necessary. The money supply is now growing through normal, homegrown forces, and the growth started just as the Fed’s QE2 ended. This article is posted on SeekingAlpha.com »

Follow the Money Supply- To the Stock Market

By John S. Tobey

Money supply is growing, and now it is being used. This activity is good news for the economy and, therefore, the stock market. Here are the compelling data and developing trends… This article is posted on SeekingAlpha.com »

Easy Money (2-cont.): Fed Policy Understates Money Growth

By John S. Tobey

During the Fed’s easy money policy, official money supply growth looks moderate. Therefore, there seems to be little indication of high inflation risk. However, the easy money policy has caused money supply dislocations. When adjusted for these, money supply growth increases appreciably, thereby raising inflation concerns. Here’s the situation… This article is posted on... »

Forecast for Bondholders: How the Fed’s Dilemma Will Affect You

By John S. Tobey

Previously, I discussed whether the Fed was paying attention to inflation’s apparent resurgence (“Tame Inflation Just Growled – Is the Fed Listening?”). Today, let’s talk about the box the Fed is in, what its choices are and how the direction chosen would affect bondholders. (more) This article is posted on SeekingAlpha.com »

Tame Inflation Just Growled – Is the Fed Listening?

By John S. Tobey

The Wall Street Journal’s lead article says it all: “Global Price Fears Mount” (By Brian Blackstone and Marcus Walker, January 24, page A-1). Rising inflation concerns have reached the “something must be done” stage. Everywhere except here in the US, that is. Now that anti-inflation actions (i.e., interest rate increases) are being discussed or... »

The Fed’s QE2 Decision – Let’s Hope It Includes an Exit Strategy

By John S. Tobey

Fed watching is in high gear, looking for signs that the Federal Reserve will initiate “Quantitative Easing 2” (QE2): Buying more bonds to keep interest rates low, foster economic growth and boost employment. Then there is the widespread discussion of how the news – whatever the decision – will affect the bond and stock... »

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