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Starting Gun Just Sounded For 2014 Housing Market – Time To Buy D.R. Horton
This is it – the news we’ve been waiting for: New highs in the economy and homebuilder confidence. And they came at the same time. Moreover, we’re getting this good news in the final stages of “loss harvesting” in which investors mistakenly sell low for tax “benefits,” ignoring fundamentals. Sale candidates are homebuilders, at... »
Six Rising Stocks For The Market’s Year-End Party
This year’s stock market has unique characteristics that could produce a year-end upward burst. Driving the market higher has been a heady combination of a broadly improved economy, past troubles fading away, and a significant increase in investor interest, particularly in growth stocks. In addition, over the last couple of weeks, economic readings and... »
‘Harvesting Losses’ Is Wrong On Two Counts
“Harvesting.” On a farm this action takes place that after the seeds have been planted, the rains have come, the sun has shone, and the crops have grown well. The result? The farmer harvests and sells his crops at a profit. It does not mean that conditions went awry, the crops withered and the... »
A Surprisingly Large Year-end Stock Run? Tax Advice Could Cause It
Now is the time investment advisories address tax strategies. This year, an unusual confluence of factors is producing a rare, single-decision strategy that applies to most investors: Hold. As happened in 1991, this widespread action could diminish supply, leading to a year-end run-up – possibly large. What makes this year special are these five... »
Interested In Caterpillar? Make Use Of Copper-Coal-Canada Correlation
The ongoing challenge with timing stock investments is that clear signs rarely precede a price move. Speculation rests on divining probable futures, typically about six months in advance. However, for Caterpillar (CAT), I think we have the advantage of some leading indicators: namely, copper, coal and Canadian stocks. Here’s how it fits into our... »
Caterpillar Is 2013’s Right Place, Wrong Time Stock – Brighter Days Ahead
Search for good Caterpillar (CAT) news and we come up empty. Each quarter’s earnings report has been a downbeat event, significantly missing analysts’ reduced estimates and leading to the snowball effect of reduced future projections. Small wonder CAT’s stock price pattern looks miserable. Its -6% decline this year puts it in the 30th spot... »
Best Buy Provides Insight Into Stock Market
Best Buy (BBY), a leader in 2013’s market, captures the hopes and fears currently in this stock market. On the one hand, it is a shining example of potential company success (and stock gains) possible in a slow growth economy. On the other hand, the stock’s almost 3-fold rise in ten months serves as... »
U.S. Stock Market Makes First Corrective Turn Today (Nov-6)
Yes, the market’s up, but that’s not the important news. Rather, it’s how the move is constructed. Instead of this year’s leaders, there’s been a shift to the laggards. Here’s why this one-day’s market move is noteworthy… This article is published on Forbes.com »
Suddenly, Market Looks ‘Too High’ – Prepare For Opportunities Ahead
It looks like 2013’s happy stock market could take a tumble. The steady, upward drumbeat of the bulls fell on deaf ears this week, with “frothy” and “bubble” descriptions taking front and center. A good example is this weekend’s article in The Wall Street Journal: “Warning Signs Flash as Stock Market Soars to Record... »
‘Frothy!’ Warnings About Stock Market Are — Well, Frothy
In “Stocks At Mesmerizing Point, So Consider A Little Selling,” I described hearing the little voice whispering a cautionary counsel — that stock performance was affecting stock rationale. Then, doing this weekend’s reading, I see some big voices shouting ominous warnings of speculative fever and a frothy market. So, which voice should we listen... »
Stocks At Mesmerizing Point, So Consider A Little Selling
One lesson I learned from my 30 years in Wall Street is that even investment professionals can act like novice investors given the right circumstances. Skill and experience don’t always protect us from Mr. Market’s crafty ways. Today’s market and my experience is a case in point. Here’s why I began to have doubts,... »
Forget Affordability – Housing’s Trends Signal A Bright Future
It seems that whenever something happens in the housing market, a flock of articles pop up explaining why the signs are ominous and housing is destined to flounder. To me, the oddest one has to do with existing home sales this year. Prices have risen, and the inventory of homes for sale has fallen.... »
Suddenly Housing Activity Looks Bullish Again
An influx of data and observations is reshaping housing’s activity from its hopeful look to something more exciting. The positive developments are so widespread and significant that it seems time to shift from being positive to being bullish on housing. Below are the items I find most compelling: This article is published on Forbes.com... »
Federal Debt Crisis? It’s Over (And Overblown), So Stay With Stocks
The Wall Street Journal placed a large, misleading graph on page 1 last Thursday (Oct 16). In “Congress Strikes a Debt Deal,” the graph highlighted the 20-year, fourfold increase in U.S. government debt and the historically large growth over the past four years. While the numbers are correct, the WSJ’s presentation is not. Here’s... »
Apple Still Doesn’t Measure Up
In spite of Carl Icahn’s taking a large position in Apple (AAPL) and this week’s announcement of the new iPhone 5S and 5C, Apple continues to have an uncertain future. As a result, I believe it remains a poor investment. Here is the comment I posted in my previous article on Seeking Alpha: »
John Tobey on Seeking Alpha
