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Apple: Reality Bites, So Time To Sell
Recently (Thursday, 8/8), The Wall Street Journal had bad news about Apple (AAPL). Their “Marketplace” section’s top article (Android Seizes Phone Market) presented Apple’s 3-year inability to grow iOS market share even as weaker competitors gave up gobs of it. The winner: Android-based phones, now with a quasi-monopoly of 80% market share, up from... »
Homebuilder Horton – Hold, Fold Or Double-Down?
Wednesday, everything seemed so right with D.R. Horton (DHI). Analysis had revealed a high quality, well-managed company. Then the excellent industry news ramped up sales and earnings expectations. Thursday morning, sure enough, Horton announced that it not only beat the average EPS estimate by 24%, but also exceeded the top of the analyst estimate... »
Homebuilders: Today’s Special Buying Opportunity
Outstanding homebuilder industry sales and pricing news for June was just released, yet homebuilder stocks so far have not reacted. The news is exceptionally good because expectations have been so negative (i.e., the “surprise” factor is high). With this proof that new homebuyers are undeterred by the higher mortgage fixed-rates, we would expect the... »
Despite Warnings, New Bull Market Leg Is Forming
Typical of many warnings being proffered to investors these days, Michael Santoli (formerly at Barron’s and now with Yahoo! Finance) has written Retail Investors Should Lower Expectations. He cites many reasons to be cautious and expect lower returns from “nearly all” asset classes. I’ve found Michael’s writings to be well-done. However, I believe his... »
Mortgage Rate Worry Is Hiding Homebuilder Opportunity
The good news continues for both the housing market (demand and prices up, foreclosure supply diminishing) and homebuilders (activity and confidence up). Real estate has become desirable again, spurring buyers, investors and lenders. The only “bad” news has been higher fixed mortgage rates. In 2 Reasons Rate Rise Makes Homebuilders A Buy, I discussed... »
D.R. Horton: Built To Ride Housing’s New Upswing
In 2 Reasons Rate Rise Makes Homebuilders A Buy, I described how rising interest rates will likely boost home sales, not weaken them. Two important forces could be unleashed by a rate uptrend. First, potential home buyers can be influenced to act sooner, thereby avoiding higher mortgage rates later. Second, banks, seeing an increase... »
2 Reasons Rate Rise Makes Homebuilders A Buy
The sharp drop in homebuilder stock prices last week was based on the belief that interest rates up necessarily means home sales down. In today’s environment, that logic is flawed. The correct evaluation should be that the rising interest rates will boost housing’s comeback, not defer or diminish it. Therefore, those hammered homebuilder stocks... »
Bristol-Myers, Merck And Roche: R&D Finds Golden Pill, So Buy
We had great news today (Thursday), but the response was tepid. Rather than being disappointed or dismissing the news, here is why we should be excited at both the developments and the investment potential it opens up. This article is published on SeekingAlpha.com »
Apple: Time To Get Optimistic Again
Last month, Apple (AAPL) seemed a good buy because its yield was attracting income buyers (Apple: Analytical Shift Makes Stock A Buy). Now, not only is the yield still attractive, but Apple’s investor antipathy and diminished growth expectations are added reasons to buy – i.e., to be optimistic about AAPL as a stock investment.... »
Apple: Analytical Shift Makes Stock A Buy
My last analysis of Apple (Apple: Last Year I Said Sell — Buy Now?) was downbeat. Now I believe Apple looks like a good buy. So what’s changed? Basically, the perspective we should adopt in evaluating the “new” Apple. Apple’s 45% decline from its $705 high only seven months ago contains two major adjustments:... »
Forget ‘Don’t Fight The Fed’ – It’s Time To Fed-Proof Your Portfolio
In obedience to the mantra, “Don’t fight the Fed,” investors have remained committed to the process of Fed meets, Fed announces, markets react accordingly. Strongly supporting that belief today is the past four years’ results. Longevity and repetition have convinced investors and even most of the Fed’s committee members that this wonderful situation is... »
Apple: Last Year I Said Sell — Buy Now?
In articles last year, I attributed Apple’s heady rise to unrealistic growth expectations and investor over-optimism. Has Apple’s (AAPL) 40% decline wiped out those excesses? If so, is AAPL once again an attractive investment? The short answers are: “Yes” and “No.” Answering the “Buy now?” question requires evaluating Apple from seven viewpoints. Here is... »
3 Reasons To Boost Short-Term Allocation
For many investors, the past few years have proven that intermediate- to long-term bonds are a great place to invest. Short-term bonds and money market securities have seemingly played the role of spoiler, offering no clear benefits and dragging down overall returns. Hence, there’s been an understandable allocation reduction. The best example is money... »
4-Year Stock Optimist Turns Negative – 4 Signs Market Is On Thin Ice
For four years, since March 9, 2009, I’ve actively invested in the U.S. stock market and written about the benefits of doing so. Now, however, that has changed. I’ve just sold (last Thursday, 2/21) all but one holding and gone to cash. While others also are worrying about the stock market (see excellent article... »
Cyberonics Reports Outstanding Earnings – Now What?
Prior to Friday’s (2/22) stock market open, Cyberonics (CYBX) reported $0.47 EPS for its fiscal 3rd quarter 2013, up 38% from one year ago, and almost 24% above estimated earnings. Revenues were almost $63 million, up 15% from last year and 3.5% better than expected. Today the stock rose 5.2% from yesterday’s $44.33 close.... »
John Tobey on Seeking Alpha
