Friday’s Unemployment Number Approaches – Time To Regain Perspective

Wednesday, December 2, 2009

357980_storm_treeHere it comes: the unemployment number. Last reported at 10.2%, The Wall Street Journal says we must “brace” for the coming Friday morning report. So, let’s prepare by looking at the leading indicators of employment to get a proper perspective…

I have covered issues with the unemployment rate and the need to focus on leading indicators in two previous write-ups: “Is Unemployment Now A Leading Indicator? No!”  and “Look Past the Headlines – Employment Trends Are Good.”

Here is the updated chart showing the two official leading indicators:

EE Leading Ind

And here are two other leading indicators:

EE Temp and OT hours

So, the employment picture continues to brighten, based on the leading indicators. We can now look at whatever unemployment rate comes our way with calmness and an expectation that, sooner or later, it, too, will start improving.

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