Friday the 13th – A Stock Market Oasis?

Friday, November 13, 2009

110859_thirteenThere are many articles this week about the number-13 and the Friday-the-13th phobias, with their impossible-to-pronounce Greek labels. I thought a look at the record might help us prepare for today’s stock market. Here is what I found…

I examined the daily record for the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) from January 2000 through yesterday’s close. I then split the period into four parts:

A – Fridays – excluding the 13ths

AB – Friday-the-13ths

B – 13ths – other than Fridays

C – All other days

The DJIA closed out the 20th century and began the 21st at 11,497. Yesterday, it ended at 10,197, down 1,300 points. The chart below shows how this point change occurred.

Friday 13

Reflecting my comments in “Friday – the Stock Market’s Opposite Day”, Fridays, overall, ran counter to the rest of the weekdays. They produced a loss equal to the DJIA’s decline nearly four times over. Clearly, these were not good days to be in the stock market this decade.

However, there is a respite: Friday-the-13ths. Those 15 days managed to eke out a small gain. In addition, the non-Friday 13ths produced excellent gains.

So, based on this statistical study, we investors have no reason for a 13-type fear. Maybe we should think about a Friday phobia, though.

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