Author Archive

Homebuilders’ Bonus: Weak Competition From ‘Newer’ Homes

Thursday, May 22nd, 2014
Homebuilders’ Bonus: Weak Competition From ‘Newer’ Homes

New home sales get reported tomorrow (Friday, 5/23), but the monthly, seasonally adjusted number is not the key determinant of the homebuilding outlook. Yes, we will see how things are going now, but more importantly are the underlying drivers that put new homes in a favorable competitive position. Especially important is the shrunken supply... »

Posted in Housing & Homebuilding, Investment Insights | No Comments »

Stock Market Stability – The Calm Before… Sunny Days

Monday, May 19th, 2014
Stock Market Stability – The Calm Before… Sunny Days

The “it’s quiet – too quiet” crowd warns that the market’s calmness is a setup for unwary investors. We’re told that, with too-high values (they’re not) and biotech/tech bubbles bursting (they’re neither bubbles nor bursting), it’s only a matter of time before the stock market cracks. The fundamental outlook that supports this view? Non-existent.... »

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Fed Refuses To Remove Its 100% Tax On Savers

Friday, May 9th, 2014
Fed Refuses To Remove Its 100% Tax On Savers

The 5-year Fed wealth redistribution gambit has made savers poorer. It’s time to rectify this abnormal and unfair scheme. Under new management, the Federal Reserve nevertheless continues its non-reality show.  Only now they’re inventing reasons not to let savers have their due. Fed head Yellen just cited the old, now non-existent, “problems” of low... »

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Apple Has Dazzling Sideshow, But Main Event Is Boring

Saturday, April 26th, 2014
Apple Has Dazzling Sideshow, But Main Event Is Boring

Imagine. Steve Jobs comes onstage, firing up his iPad to project beautiful tables and charts of money. From the stage sofa, he announces Apple’s stock split (“Now the little investor can buy 70 shares instead of only ten”). He then tells about the big dividend money being distributed to shareholders (“We trust you to... »

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Exploit This Goldilocks U.S. Stock Market

Tuesday, April 22nd, 2014
Exploit This Goldilocks U.S. Stock Market

According to what we read and hear, the economy, housing and the stock market are either overheated or tepid. Even the Fed vacillates between hot inflation and cold deflation worries. The reality? That glow that we see everywhere is Goldilocks’ “just right” warmth, evidence of neither a burgeoning bonfire nor a sputtering flameout. This... »

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Homebuilders – Stocks Priced For Disappointment, So Time To Own

Monday, April 21st, 2014
Homebuilders – Stocks Priced For Disappointment, So Time To Own

With investors typically looking six months ahead, we should be seeing a good spark of interest in homebuilders stocks. But, instead, there is a collective holding of breaths. There are three key drivers for this hesitation. More importantly, the wait-and-see attitude is setting up the possibility of a “who knew?” run-up in homebuilder stocks.... »

Posted in Housing & Homebuilding, Investment Insights | No Comments »

Ignore Momentum Advice — Buy Real Growth Stocks

Wednesday, April 9th, 2014
Ignore Momentum Advice — Buy Real Growth Stocks

“They” are at it again, trying to trip up our investment plans. A deluge of articles warns that “momentum” investing (i.e., investors chasing performance) created a bubble-like environment that is now popping. The conclusion? Run from growth, and focus on dividends and safety. That great advice for April 2000 and April 2009 is terrible... »

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Biotech Stocks Look Ready To Rebound

Tuesday, April 8th, 2014
Biotech Stocks Look Ready To Rebound

Looking at this week’s (4/7 and 4/8) action, biotech stocks are showing signs of support. Technical patterns, investor behavior and takeover interest are indicating that current prices offer a buying opportunity. Here is what has changed. This article is published on Forbes.com »

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4 Reasons Not To Buy Biotechs Yet

Sunday, April 6th, 2014
4 Reasons Not To Buy Biotechs Yet

Biotech stocks dropped again, but four reasons indicate that waiting remains the best strategy. Attitudes of investors appear not to have turned negative yet and, therefore, biotech stocks are susceptible to more selling. The biotech sell-off, while possibly presenting trading opportunities, looks problematic for long-term investors. While an imminent collapse doesn’t look likely, biotech’s... »

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Investors’ Next Disappointment Will Come From Risk Mismanagement

Sunday, March 30th, 2014
Investors’ Next Disappointment Will Come From Risk Mismanagement

Risk mismanagement is everywhere. Many investors (individual and professional), investment advisors and even Wall Street are guilty of overstating, underweighting or misunderstanding risk. As a result, portfolios are being designed to disappoint. Worse, we have finally reached the best of times for investing, only to have investors’ prospects mucked up by bad investment decisions.... »

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Biotech Drop: Neither A Bubble-Burst Nor A Growth-Warning

Wednesday, March 26th, 2014
Biotech Drop: Neither A Bubble-Burst Nor A Growth-Warning

As biotechnology stocks have fallen, visions of a bubble bursting have risen. After all, as The Wall Street Journal reminds us, “What goes up must come down….” Then there are those sky-high valuations and all those IPOs. Clearly, a disaster was waiting to happen, and now investors (again, per the WSJ) are “…learning the... »

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Goldman’s Misunderstood Growth Message – It’s Bullish, Not Cautionary

Tuesday, March 18th, 2014
Goldman’s Misunderstood Growth Message – It’s Bullish, Not Cautionary

Goldman Sachs’ “US Weekly Kickstart” (March 7) produced warnings that Goldman is now concerned about growth stock valuations (e.g., in the WSJ: “High-Flying Growth Stocks Could See Rough Landing, Goldman Says”). However, the information cited is actually bullish for growth stocks, as evidenced by Goldman’s advising stocks over bonds and, within stocks, growth stocks... »

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Keurig Green Mountain: Time To Double Up

Tuesday, March 11th, 2014
Keurig Green Mountain: Time To Double Up

The Keurig Green Mountain (nee, Green Mountain Coffee Roasters) + Coca-Cola fanfare has died down, last week’s annual meeting is past, and the next quarterly report is two months away. As a result, traders and other short-termers have moved on, letting the stock price drift down. Such cool-off periods can be beneficial, both for... »

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The Risk Behind Buffett’s Advice

Saturday, March 8th, 2014
The Risk Behind Buffett’s Advice

Warren Buffett’s investment advice echoes the long-term stock investors’ refrain: “Buy and hold.” Further, adopting academics’ (and Jack Bogle’s) beliefs, he advises holding an inexpensive S&P 500 index fund. That sounds easy. And, coming from the master, undoubtedly profitable. We only need to look at a long-term stock index chart to prove the wisdom... »

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Crazy But True: Being Contrarian Means Being Bullish

Thursday, March 6th, 2014
Crazy But True: Being Contrarian Means Being Bullish

What does it take to convert stock market trepidation to enthusiasm? Clearly, a half-decade upmarket doesn’t do the trick. This market’s theme song should be, “Sixteen Tons,” paraphrased: You load a hundred percent and what do you get? Five years older and still no respect The evidence is in the “celebratory” headlines… This article... »

Posted in Contrarian Investing, Investment Insights | No Comments »

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