Tag Archive

Stock Market Turnaround Could Be Near

By John S. Tobey

Often, a dramatic, weekly move that accentuates a previous trend is followed by an equally dramatic one in the opposite direction. Last week’s decline could be just such a move, setting us up for a possible stock market turnaround. One week’s action does not signify a trend Occasionally, we get dramatic and negative news... »

Outlook 2011: Growth and a Return to Normality

By John S. Tobey

Commentators say 2010 was a year of “unexpected” economic and market gains in the face of worries, concerns and reversals. That’s because those pundits allowed 2009’s uncertainties to carry over into their thinking. Looking for the next big, bad event produced numerous false warnings and unfulfilled dire predictions. 2011’s outlook is for growth and... »

A Key New Year’s Resolution: Invest for Growth

By John S. Tobey

Last December I provided four New Year’s investment resolutions that were applicable in all markets (listed below). It seemed many investors were still shell-shocked and needed to be reminded that no economic/market environment lasts forever. Therefore, it was important to continue practicing sound investment principles. For 2011, however, there is one resolution that many... »

US Stocks vs. Bonds – The Obvious Choice

By John S. Tobey

Occasionally (rarely) there are times when the next investment trend is obvious. Today looks like one of those times. »

Pitfalls in Today’s US Stock Market – Part 3

By John S. Tobey

Given Wall Street’s disruptive game playing described in Parts 1 and 2, what’s an investor to do? Today, I address “III. How we can invest and protect ourselves.” »

Pitfalls in Today’s US Stock Market – Part 2

By John S. Tobey

This write-up continues yesterday’s discussion of an investment approach that seeks to frighten investors into selling at abnormally low prices. Under “II. Why is it allowed to exist,” we covered the removal of short-selling controls (uptick and “naked”) and weak enforcement of false rumors. Today, we will review two other important, negative forces in... »

Pitfalls in Today’s US Stock Market – Part 1

By John S. Tobey

Yesterday, I described two professional investment management approaches. When opportunities arise in emotional times, buy Sell short (and incite); then buy The first is not only sound investing, it provides the means for generating liquidity in tough times, a key element to the long-term health of our public ownership system. The second is the... »

Risk Forecasts Have Increased – So, Too, Have Opportunities

By John S. Tobey

Risk one-upmanship is upon us. The possible dire consequences from the European Union’s (EU’s) Greek troubles now have moved from widespread contagion, itself a stretch, to forecasts of the EU’s dissolution and the Euro’s abandonment. Goldman Sachs calls this outlook, “ridiculous,” saying the Euro’s decline actually may be at or near the bottom (“O’Neill... »

Beware False Prophets Bearing Profits

By John S. Tobey

Investment adviser write-ups can give us valuable insights, particularly in times like these. Remembering that honesty and humility are key characteristics of top advisers, we can use their newsletters, articles and blogs to judge those qualities. »

Five Articles Describe Why Investors Can Now Focus on Growth, Not Risk

By John S. Tobey

The economy is humming? It certainly looks like it. And that activity is spreading elsewhere. Here are five recent articles with selected quotes that underline what is happening and show that the US stock market hasn’t run ahead of the fundamentals. »

Two Measures of Bond Yield Risk – Which Is Better?

By John S. Tobey

Are investors presently risk averse? Or are they pursuing high risk investments? The answers are important to understanding the tone of markets, particularly when there have been large moves one way or another. For bond investors, “spread” is the magic measure. What I want to address here is two ways spread is measured and... »

Stay Close to Your Investments – But Not Too Close

By John S. Tobey

Don’t be a fair weather investor, staying too close to your investments in sunny times and ignoring them when the storms come. Investors, when optimistic, commonly check investment prices and news frequently. Then, when pessimistic, they let their statements pile up, unopened. Ignoring your investments can be problematic, but being overly attentive can be... »

Dissecting the Yield Curve, Looking for Inflation – Yup, There It Is

By John S. Tobey

The recent bond yield increase is raising the question of inflation. Is it the cause? Yesterday, I included inflation with three other factors: economic growth, large bond supply and the effect of short-term rates rising. Because inflation can have serious negative effects, it is the item causing concern. Is there a way to get... »

How To Deal with Today’s US Stock Market Risk – Ignore It

By John S. Tobey

I continue to hear a litany of warnings about the US’s inability to grow or even function. Common fears are the massive deficit’s effects, runaway inflation, a second economic/market drop and perpetually high unemployment. Added to the mix are threats from global warming, a burgeoning world population and terrorism. Finally, there is the Mayan... »

New Year’s Investment Resolutions – #1

By John S. Tobey

New Year’s resolutions are typically borne from a combination of desire and guilt. For investing resolutions, people tend to look back at recent market trends. Bull markets see investors vowing to take more risk – bear markets, less. Neither, though is the right approach. Reactionary steps are neither resolutions nor sound investing. During this... »


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May 2024