Archive for September, 2010

Important read: “You Should Have Timed the Market” (By Brett Arends September 29) Key items: »

Yesterday I discussed a likely trend change coming (see “WSJ Accidentally Identifies Macro Investing’s Probable End of the Line“). Investing for such a change can be highly profitable. Trend changes are actually numerous, relating to virtually all investment types, groupings or management approaches. The goal isn’t to spot all of them. Here’s what’s needed… »

Another sign that “macro-investing” is becoming obsolete: On Friday (September 24) The Wall Street Journal led its front-page “Business & Finance” news brief column with supposedly dire news from Europe: Ireland was in trouble, meaning Europe was teetering again. This overwrought piece even resorted to “double dose” as a reminder of the now diminished... »

Last Friday, The Wall Street Journal published a lengthy, front-page article that unwittingly described why the powerful macro investing trend might be close to ending. “Unwittingly” because the article attempts to explain why the trend should be with us forever. »

The 200-day moving average, one of the screens I recently used, could be starting to reach the end of its usefulness. It may seem odd, but this longer-term measure often has only short-term value. Here’s why… »

Since I wrote “Value Screening US Stocks – Example with 7 ‘Picks’” (September 1), the stock market has risen over 5%. What’s happened to the screening results, and what should we do now? »

In investing, the key challenge is to get the direction right. But what about timing? Guessing at when a move will happen isn’t worth it. Hidden dynamics (and they’re usually invisible when they would be most useful) are famous at creating “surprisingly” fast moves. Here are two excellent examples from The Wall Street Journal: »

Yesterday I wrote about the US stock market’s third hurdle approaching: The next quarterly earnings reports. (See “US Stocks’ Third Hurdle Just Around the Corner.“) What might we expect, and why do they matter? »

The US stock market has cleared its first two hurdles nicely. On the horizon is the third. As June ended, with the US stock market down from its April highs, I thought it faced three hurdles to rebuild its base and regain investor interest (see “This Stock Market Decline Is Painful” – July 2).... »

Even Wall Street’s best are having trouble getting investors to show interest in owning US stocks. Maybe the answer is dropping the logical argument based on experience. Instead, adopt a strategy proven successful with consumers: Change the name and, thereby, the perception. »

The flaws in the US stock market that caused the May 6 “flash crash” remain. These two articles bring troubling news. »

Whether you call it a bubble or not, investors’ love affair with bonds may be ending. Longer-term bond losses in the last three weeks have been about one-half year’s interest income. It may not seem possible. After all, corporate bond yields rose only 0.22% from their 3.74% historic low on August 24 to 3.96%... »

Customary Wall Street practice is to follow the trend. Investment product creation and marketing tends to take the easy road. By focusing on what investors want now, firms figure they will simply change tactics when people want something different. In the end, however, the investor-client base that bought near the top feels taken advantage... »

In Wall Street, it’s New Year’s Day. Wall Streeters are back, refreshed from their summer vacations, wearing starched white shirts and ready to focus on what 2011 has in store. As they assemble their teams, the question is what their conclusions will be. This is the second hurdle I described in “This Stock Market... »

There are now signs that we can look forward to normality returning in 2011. Perfect timing, with Wall Street coming back from its summer vacation and ready to examine the new year. What are these indicators? They’re an eclectic group… »