Five Reasons It’s Time To Buy Bonds Again

Saturday, December 21, 2013
Five Reasons It’s Time To Buy Bonds Again

Bonds in 2013 finally got their comeuppance. After a long, pleasing ride of income + price gains, the bond market decided the party was over. It only took four months for the 10-year U.S. Treasury note to drop the equivalent of over five years’ interest. All but the shortest maturities suffered similar fates.

So why should we expect that we’re safe again? Couldn’t 2013’s drop be the harbinger of worse to come? Like gold, mightn’t we be entering a secular bear market in bonds?

Here are the five reasons why bonds can be bought now with confidence and safety…

This article is published on Forbes.com

 

Don’t Put Your Portfolio On Autopilot For The Next Two Weeks

Friday, December 20, 2013
Don’t Put Your Portfolio On Autopilot For The Next Two Weeks

Prior to the 1982 holiday season, I was having lunch with one of Bank of America’s top pension fund managers, Frank Husic, then at Alliance Capital. (I was the VP in charge of the pension and savings plans’ investments.) When I asked about his holiday plans, he surprised me, saying he would be at his desk. He explained that, with so many top investment professionals having vacated their offices during such times, profitable stock moves inevitably popped up. From that time forward, I’ve found his observation to be accurate – that absence could produce interesting stock price moves due to the inattention and inactivity.

This article is published on Forbes.com


Gogo’s Downer PR News Is Actually A Sign Of Upward Progress

Thursday, December 19, 2013
Gogo’s Downer PR News Is Actually A Sign Of Upward Progress

Today’s PR announcement was received badly, pushing Gogo (GOGO) down 15%. The stock is now over 25% below its recent high. While such performance is evidence of something seriously amiss, the news is actually a sign of growth and maturity, not trouble and concern.

Here’s the explanation…

This article is published on Forbes.com


Starting Gun Just Sounded For 2014 Housing Market – Time To Buy D.R. Horton

Tuesday, December 17, 2013
Starting Gun Just Sounded For 2014 Housing Market – Time To Buy D.R. Horton

This is it – the news we’ve been waiting for: New highs in the economy and homebuilder confidence. And they came at the same time. Moreover, we’re getting this good news in the final stages of “loss harvesting” in which investors mistakenly sell low for tax “benefits,” ignoring fundamentals. Sale candidates are homebuilders, at their 2013 low points, making them bargain priced for fundamental-focused investors.

This article is published on Forbes.com

Six Rising Stocks For The Market’s Year-End Party

Monday, December 16, 2013
Six Rising Stocks For The Market’s Year-End Party

This year’s stock market has unique characteristics that could produce a year-end upward burst. Driving the market higher has been a heady combination of a broadly improved economy, past troubles fading away, and a significant increase in investor interest, particularly in growth stocks. In addition, over the last couple of weeks, economic readings and expectations have been ramping up.

Overlaying these excellent fundamental conditions is a key catalyst/force: The unusual containment of investor inflows and sizable stock gains within the calendar (i.e., tax) year. The flip side of the widespread “harvest losses” tax advice is the “avoid short-term gains.” And with so many large gains, particularly among growth stocks, the stage is set for a fast, meaningful rise at year-end.

This article is published on Forbes.com


‘Harvesting Losses’ Is Wrong On Two Counts

Monday, December 9, 2013
‘Harvesting Losses’ Is Wrong On Two Counts

“Harvesting.” On a farm this action takes place that after the seeds have been planted, the rains have come, the sun has shone, and the crops have grown well. The result? The farmer harvests and sells his crops at a profit. It does not mean that conditions went awry, the crops withered and the result was a loss.

Here are the two flaws with the notion of harvesting losses…

This article is published on Forbes.com


A Surprisingly Large Year-end Stock Run? Tax Advice Could Cause It

Friday, November 29, 2013
A Surprisingly Large Year-end Stock Run? Tax Advice Could Cause It

Now is the time investment advisories address tax strategies. This year, an unusual confluence of factors is producing a rare, single-decision strategy that applies to most investors: Hold.

As happened in 1991, this widespread action could diminish supply, leading to a year-end run-up – possibly large. What makes this year special are these five simultaneous drivers…

This article is published on Forbes.com


Interested In Caterpillar? Make Use Of Copper-Coal-Canada Correlation

Thursday, November 28, 2013
Interested In Caterpillar? Make Use Of Copper-Coal-Canada Correlation

The ongoing challenge with timing stock investments is that clear signs rarely precede a price move. Speculation rests on divining probable futures, typically about six months in advance. However, for Caterpillar (CAT), I think we have the advantage of some leading indicators: namely, copper, coal and Canadian stocks. Here’s how it fits into our planning…

This article is published on Forbes.com


Caterpillar Is 2013’s Right Place, Wrong Time Stock – Brighter Days Ahead

Friday, November 22, 2013
Caterpillar Is 2013’s Right Place, Wrong Time Stock – Brighter Days Ahead

Search for good Caterpillar (CAT) news and we come up empty. Each quarter’s earnings report has been a downbeat event, significantly missing analysts’ reduced estimates and leading to the snowball effect of reduced future projections.

Small wonder CAT’s stock price pattern looks miserable. Its -6% decline this year puts it in the 30th spot among the DJIA’s 30 stocks this year. As the leading “Dow dog,” Caterpillar needs 35+% outperformance just to catch up with the market.

Here’s why Caterpillar could see brighter days ahead…

This article is published on Forbes.com


Search

John Tobey on Seeking Alpha

Seeking Alpha Certified

March 2024
S M T W T F S
 12
3456789
10111213141516
17181920212223
24252627282930
31