Last October, I reviewed Apple’s (AAPL) situation without Steve Jobs and with a rare, under-expectations earnings report. I likened those negative items to strikes one and two, but leaving Apple in the game.

Strike three? I believe it has occurred, not as a single event, but as a combination of Wednesday’s new iPad announcement and some uncharacteristic, growing concerns about Apple’s ability to continue its high profit margin growth. These items add up to the beginning of a decline in Apple’s superiority.

This article is posted on SeekingAlpha.com

After a smooth rise from last year’s lows, stocks stalled out over the past few weeks. Which way would they go? Many pundits predicted higher prices ahead, using the rationale of “still cheap.” However, this is one of those times when valuation measures don’t mean much. Here’s why, how we should view this drop and, most importantly, how to take advantage of it…

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Today’s bullish/bearish gold sentiments are mismatched. Bulls list gold’s preservation and protection strengths, and bears point to its high price. To improve the debate, we need to get away from current events and examine history.

Here are three periods and methodologies that provide the perspectives needed…

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Bernanke today didn’t match the scary caricature envisioned by gold and silver bulls. Sensible and restrained, he failed to stoke the easy money, worthless dollar, hyperinflation frights that have kept gold and silver buoyed.

What next? Today’s sharp gold and silver price drops could be the start of a serious bear market. With the precious metals’ fundamentals seriously depleted, buying support at previous lower levels could now be absent. Therefore, there is a high probability that last year’s speculative blow-offs will go down as this decade’s highs, similar to gold’s 1980 peak. We could see a repeat of that multi-year decline, with only periodic trading bumps to encourage hangers-on.

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Gold and silver prices, after peaking in 2011, have sought to reestablish foundation levels. They seem to have succeeded in two ways.

First, both metals once again travel in unison with silver having given up its wanderlust. Since their lengthy uptrends began in late 2006, both have risen about 200%.

Second, they have recently had similarly encouraging price movements, testing downside breakouts, then easily reversing them – typically, a sign of strength. And now both have regained lost ground, rising to key upside barriers.

So, what’s next? While there is the opportunity for further gains, there is also the risk of a significant, extended decline.

This article is posted on SeekingAlpha.com

For over two years, Google (GOOG) management has been unable to move the company’s stock ahead. Since December 2009, GOOG has had a 0% return, even though the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 30% and Apple (AAPL) is up 150%. The question is, “Why”? Is it because management has been foundation building for a major move in the future? Or is it because management has done a poor job? It looks to be the latter.

This article is posted on SeekingAlpha.com

In my previous article I discussed moving to a new stock strategy that includes cash reserves. Some readers asked if, in this time of near-zero interest rates, it wasn’t a better to stay fully invested.

My answer is “no” because yield isn’t the issue – it’s the benefits to be had from using cash reserves in the market ahead. Here’s the explanation…

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The “easy” money 3-year bull market is ending, but a new one is beginning. The previous, extended period of rising stock prices was built on improving fundamentals. The 2010 and 2011 mega-fear periods helped keep worry alive, allowing stock investors to acquire and hold attractively priced stocks.

However, the shift to normality is upon us. The steady flow of obviously good economic news that began in late 2011 combined with the stock market’s full recovery from the summer slump has alleviated worry and rebuilt investor interest. The good news is that the increased buying has compounded unrealized gains. The bad news is that we should not expect to earn those wonderful returns by continuing to hold leading companies – that approach has been rewarded.

Replacing that bull market is a new one, filled with opportunity, but requiring a different approach. Here are the 3 steps I believe are necessary to win in the coming bull market…

This article is posted on SeekingAlpha.com

Apple (AAPL) is a bipolar stock.

In its down periods, Apple seems too good to last – that it’s only a matter of time before the abnormal combination of massive new product sales and extraordinarily high profit margins will collapse, taking earnings and the stock with it.

However, in its up periods, Apple appears flawless. In the right place at the right time, the company seems to be riding, even controlling, the technology wave.

My previous articles have addressed both sides. Until last week, my decision (having bought in 2010 at about $250) was to hold. However, on Friday, I sold. Here are the reasons…

This article is posted on SeekingAlpha.com