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The Three-week Countdown to Stock Market’s 2011 Has Begun
Stock analysts and investment managers are preparing for the post-Labor Day move to 2011. They know the way to earn superior returns is to anticipate well, and that means not waiting until New Year’s Day. This move to the next year, like last year’s, is especially challenging because neither the economy nor the stock... »
US Stocks Clearing Their First Hurdle
Company earnings reports are coming in better than expected, and they are causing stocks to jump. This is the test I wrote about in “US Stock Market’s Trend About To Be Tested” (June 29): “Bearish investors need to tread carefully in this stock market. The very attractive valuations make betting against the market especially... »
A Double Dip to Enjoy: Interest Rates
There continues to be an ongoing discussion about the economy potentially double dipping (AKA a repeat performance of the 2007-2008 bad times). Along with that worry is the stock market plummeting, with some pundits predicting a calamitous plunge. (I think Robert Prechter holds the current record with his Dow Jones Industrial Average forecast of... »
This Stock Market Decline Is Painful
It is agonizing and frightening to watch money disappear quickly. The stock market is notorious for periodically shaking the confidence of all investors. This week’s stock market downdraft is the perfect environment to create panicky feelings. What’s an investor to do when the news is bad, advisers are predicting more to come and the... »
US Stock Market’s Trend About To Be Tested
Last Friday, I suggested looking at US stock market valuations because they were back to the attractive levels of July 2009. (“It’s Time to Look at Stock Valuations” – June 25.) That was a fact-based analysis. Today, let’s add in the psychological side, then blend the two together. »
It’s Time to Look at Stock Valuations
Last month, I concluded a write-up by saying I would next be looking at stock valuations (Building on Current Earnings Foundation, Analysts Project Future Growth – May 20). Then the five baddies hit (Goldman, Greece, BP, Afghanistan and flash crash) and valuations became moot. Uncertainty took control of the stock market. So, I decided... »
Five Stock Market Pictures – Which One Is Right?
In the stock exchange art gallery hang five different paintings of this year’s stock market. Which one should we choose as being the right one? »
The Lonely Art of Contrarian Investing
Imagine that when the internet bubble peaked on March 15, 2000, you had already begun moving out of high-flying, technology stocks into stagnant, “old economy” ones. Or, when the market bottomed on March 9, 2009, you were already moving into actively managed stock funds. A pipe dream? No – it’s the result of successful... »
Time to Be a Contrarian
Investor and media sentiment has coalesced around a key thought: The economy is about to slow, stagnate and/or turn down – therefore, this is not a time to buy stocks. Whenever widespread agreement occurs in investing, invariably the smart action is contrary to common belief. Here’s what investors are doing and examples of how... »
Only Three Months Until 2011, So Plan Now
What fun! Looking ahead to the New Year, as we write off the past and focus on the future. No, my calendar isn’t broken. I’m talking about the stock market’s New Year’s celebration. »
Want Good Returns? Look to the Future
It’s easy to be mired down by today’s headlines. The negative news and uncertainties, even imponderables, can remove enthusiasm for keeping money “at risk” even though you know it’s the right thing to do – long term. The solution? Focus on the future. Doing so puts your eye on the determinants of coming returns. »
Pitfalls in Today’s US Stock Market – Part 3
Given Wall Street’s disruptive game playing described in Parts 1 and 2, what’s an investor to do? Today, I address “III. How we can invest and protect ourselves.” »
Currency Moves Signal Panic Selling – Use It to Our Advantage
Yesterday I discussed how to use currency exchange rates for understanding global economic and financial conditions. Today, let’s look at how the rates can provide a window into emotional investment moves, particularly panic selling, and how we can use the information to our advantage. »
Evaluating Global Economic and Financial Concerns – Choose Viewpoints Carefully
Last year, when rising cocoa prices were hot news, I described the problem with using only US dollar values to make an evaluation of a global product (see “Cocoa Prices and Currency Measurement” – October 23, 2009). Today, with Europe, the Euro and “contagion” in the news, it’s time to revisit the need to... »
Five Keys for Deciding What to Do in This Stock Market – Buy, Sell or Wait?
In Thursday morning’s write-up, I said I would next discuss stock valuations. However, with Thursday’s sizable market drop, I decided to spend the time analyzing portfolios and holdings. As a result, I did a bit of client buying on Friday. So, instead of valuations, I thought this article should be about dealing with periods... »
John Tobey on Seeking Alpha
